August’s US ISM manufacturing survey rise confirms that economic momentum is strong.The flagship ISM manufacturing survey, a series released by the Institute for Supply Management, with data going back to 1948, rose to 61.3 in August, its highest level since May 2004. Details of the survey were strong, for instance ‘new orders’ rose to 65.1, from 60.2 in July. The ISM index is a diffusion index, with any reading above 50 indicating expansion in activity.These healthy data are another...
Read More »ISM indices point to healthy U.S. growth in October
Other data have been more mixed and our forecast for U.S. growth remains unchanged for Q4.The ISM Manufacturing index increased modestly in October, to 51.9 from 51.5 in September, slightly above consensus expectations (51.7). However, following a sharp increase to 57.1 in September, the Non-manufacturing index fell back to 54.8 in October, below consensus expectations (56.0).The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index over the past two months confirmed that the declines in the dollar’s...
Read More »Putting fall in U.S. business surveys into context
Macroview The ISM manufacturing and nonmanufacturing surveys for August declined sharply. But these surveys are not necessarily a good predictor of economic growth The ISM Manufacturing index in the US fell heavily in August. The 49.4 reading was well below consensus expectations (52.0) and its lowest level since January 2016. The Non-Manufacturing index painted a similar picture, recording its worst monthly fall since the recession of 2008-2009. It dropped from 55.5 in July to 51.4 in...
Read More »Recent rebound in ISM indices confirmed in April
ISM figures for April, together with robust auto sales, suggest some pick up in US growth during the month Read full report here The US ISM Manufacturing survey for April 2016, published on May 2, dropped back a little, from 51.8 in March to 50.8, below consensus expectations (51.4). However, the level recorded in March was an eight-month high. And the April figure is well above the lows registered at the turn of the year (48.0 in December 2015, 48.2 in January 2016). The New Orders...
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