Tag Archives: U.K.

Overview:  The US dollar is winding down this week on a quiet note. Most of the G10 currencies are trading within yesterday's ranges. On the week, only the Scandis are set to close with gains, though with a little effort, the Australian dollar could too. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are the laggards off 0.65%-0.75% this week. Most emerging market currencies outside of central Europe are firmer. The South African rand is the strongest this week, followed by four...

Overview: There has been a string of disappointing economic news today. Japan’s economy surprisingly contracted in Q4 23 and the Q3 contraction was a little deeper than initially estimates. Australia’s jobs growth was weaker than expected and unemployment rose to 4.1%, matching the highest since November 2021. The UK’s economy contracted more than expected in Q4 23, its second consecutive quarter without growth. That seems like poor news ahead of today’s two...

Overview: The market's reaction to the firmer than expected January CPI seems exaggerated. We do not think it was the game-changer for the Federal Reserve that the market seemed to think. The dollar was driven higher, and it is stabilizing today, though the euro and sterling extended their losses, most of the other G10 currencies did not. After the yen's six-week slide did not elicit a response from Japanese officials, yesterday's drop did, and this may have helped...

Overview: The US dollar is enjoying a mostly firmer bias ahead of today's CPI report. Sterling is the strongest among the G10 currencies after a more resilient than expected labor market report. The dollar extended its gains against the Japanese yen to a new high since last November, but the market seems cautious as it approaches JPY150, where large options expire today. On the other hand, emerging market currencies are mostly faring better. The Mexican peso and...

Overview: The US dollar is bid across the board and posting its best session of the month. It is up between about 0.5% (Canadian dollar) to almost 1.0% (Australian dollar) among the G10 currencies. Among the emerging market currencies, only the Russian ruble is holding its own. Approaching CNY7.20, the greenback is near two-month highs against the yuan. The dollar has been bolstered by rising US rates. The US two-year yield is up six basis points to near 4.20%,...

Overview:  The mostly consolidative week for the US dollar continues. Most for the G10 currencies are +/- about 0.25% today and only a slightly wider range for the week. The odds of a Fed rate cut in March is virtually unchanged on the week at around 75%. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is practically flat on the day and week. The Russian ruble and Mexican peso lead today's advancers, while eastern and central European currencies are laggards. The...

Overview: After gaining for the past couple of sessions to open the New Year, the dollar is mostly softer today. The yen is the main exception. The greenback was bid above the JPY144 area where chunky options expire today. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer though there are a few exceptions in Asia, like the South Korean won and Thai baht. Still, the general tone is consolidative ahead of tomorrow US jobs data and the eurozone's CPI. Equities, which...

Overview: The US dollar begins the new year on a firm note. It is recovering against nearly all the G10 and emerging market currencies today after depreciating in the holiday-thin markets over the past couple of weeks. Japanese markets are on holiday until Thursday. The yen and Swiss franc are the poorest performers among the G10 currencies. Among emerging market currencies, the Mexican peso, Hungarian forint, and South African rand are bucking the trend to post...

Overview: The US dollar is trading softer against all the G10 currencies ahead of what is expected to be a soft November CPI report, which paves the way for a pivot by the FOMC tomorrow. It is expected to signal that policy may be sufficiently restrictive and anticipate being able to cut rates next year more than it thought in September, even if not as much as is priced into the market. Among emerging market currencies, central European currencies are leading the...

Overview: Outside of the Australian dollar, which has fallen by around 0.6% following the RBA meeting and the softer final PMI, which may have dragged the New Zealand dollar a lower by around 0.25%, the other G10 currencies trading little changed ahead of the start of the North American session. The eurozone and UK final PMIs were revised higher. Central European currencies lead the emerging market currencies. China reported better than expected Caixin PMI and...