Overview: The focus today is on the US CPI report. Another soft reading is expected, and it may strengthen ideas of a Fed cut in September, which ostensibly gives it time to cut again before the end of the year. The dollar is trading with a softer bias against most of the G10 currencies. A stronger than expected May GDP report helped sterling reach new four month high. The greenback is also holding below yesterday's high near JPY161.80 against the Japanese yen. The...
Read More »Narrow Ranges for the Dollar Prevail Ahead of Tomorrow’s US CPI
Overview: The dollar is mostly softer today, but largely within the recent ranges, as the market appears to be waiting for tomorrow's US CPI. There are a few exceptions to note. The yen is trading near its recent lows. A less hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand has triggered a sell-off of the local dollar. Softer than expected Norwegian inflation has knocked the krone lower. Most emerging market currencies are firmer, with several Asia Pacific currencies bucking the...
Read More »Euro is Little Changed, while the Yen is Softer to Start the New Week
Overview: The dollar is narrowly mixed against the G10 and emerging market currencies today. The euro is little changed, holding on to last week's gains, after the surprising French election results, where the focus shifts finding a prime minister that can carry a majority of the new and closely divided National Assembly. Despite firm underlying wage data, the Japanese yen has given back its initial gains, and the dollar is pushing back above JPY161 in the European...
Read More »Double Whammy: US CPI and Federal Reserve
Overview: Position adjustments ahead of today's US CPI and FOMC meeting are giving the dollar a modestly heavier tone today. Each of these events are typically a source of volatility in their own right and together they promise an eventful North American session. The yen is the only exception among the G10 currencies, but even there, the dollar is holding below yesterday's highs. Even sterling's relative resilience this week was unmarred by the flat April GDP. Led...
Read More »Greenback Remains Firm, Still Driest Towel on the Rack
Overview: The US dollar is firm against all the G10 currencies, except for sterling, which is straddling unchanged levels after labor market report that showed an uptick earnings remain elevated, and the unemployment rate ticked up to a new high since September 2021. The dollar reached a new six-day high against the Japanese yen near JPY157.40. The Chinese yuan (onshore) fell to new lows since last November as the mainland markets re-opened from the holiday-long...
Read More »Euro Sold After EU Parliament Elections and Macron’s Gambit
Overview: With mixed elements, the market took the US jobs data as relatively strong and took the dollar and US rates higher. The EU Parliament election has shaken up European politics, with the Belgium government collapsing and French President Macron calling a snap legislative election for the end of the month. Holidays in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Australia made for thinner Asia Pacific trading, but the euro was sold and has reached to one-month lows...
Read More »Calmer Markets Ahead of the Weekend
Overview: The dollar is paring yesterday's advance that was spurred by the rise in US rates following the preliminary PMI, which reached its best level in two years. The survey also picked up higher prices. The dollar is in narrow trading ranges but softer against nearly all the G10 currencies today. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen are laggards. Despite a large disappointing miss on UK retail sales, sterling has steadied after falling yesterday for the first time...
Read More »After Hawkish FOMC Minutes, the Dollar Comes Back Softer
Overview: The dollar was aided yesterday by the hawkish FOMC minutes and the backing up of US rates. The greenback has stabilized today and is softer against all the G10 currencies. The stronger eurozone PMI masks divergence between Germany and France but keeps the recovery narrative intact. The dollar's broad gains pressured the yuan, and the PBOC's dollar reference rate was set at its highest since January. Favorable guidance by Nvidia is helping lift US index...
Read More »Market Pushes the Yen Lower, Helped by a Broadly Firmer Greenback
Overview: The dollar is firmer against all the G10 currencies today. The market is somewhat less fearful of intervention and the yen is extending yesterday's losses. It is rivaling the Australian dollar for the weakest of the major currencies after the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold and played down speculation of possibility of a rate hike. Both currencies are off around 0.4% in late European morning turnover. Disappointing German factory orders shows...
Read More »Yen Slips, Yuan Jumps, Dollar is Mostly Softer
Overview: The dollar is mostly a little softer today in thin market conditions, with Tokyo, Seoul, and London closed for holidays. The Japanese yen is the weakest G10 currency, losing about 0.5% and slipping through last Friday's lows. At first, after Fed Chair Powell did not endorse rate hike speculation, the market thought he was dovish. But after the softer than expected jobs data and weakness in the ISM services, the market shifted from doubting one cut to...
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