Tag Archives: U.K.

Overview: A consolidative tone is emerging in the foreign exchange market as the week's key events begin tomorrow:  UK budget, eurozone and US Q3 GDP, and the US ADP private sector jobs estimate, and quarterly refunding. Outside of the Norwegian krone, which is up nearly 0.5%, the other G10 currencies are largely +/- 0.1%. The yen, Swiss franc, and antipodeans are trading with a slightly heavier bias. Among emerging market currencies, most from the Asia Pacific...

Overview:  It is ironic that a few months ago, many wanted to sell the dollar because the Republican president and vice president candidates said they wanted a weaker dollar. With the election drawing near and the race very tight, there has been a surge in the betting markets of a Trump-Vance victory, and this has corresponded with the dollar's dramatic rise. US rates held on the lion's share of their gains despite the sharpest loss in the S&P 500 since early...

Business travel will prevent the updating of the blog in the coming days.  It resumes October 19 with the Week Ahead.  Overview:  The lack of details from China's fiscal briefing, the soft CPI (and deeper PPI deflation), and a smaller than expected trade surplus did not prevent Chinese equities from advancing (CSI 300 +1.9%). Industrial commodities, such as oil, copper, iron ore, are mixed. Among the G10 currencies, the Australian dollar often acts as the China...

Overview: The combination of the firmer than expected US CPI and larger than expected rise in initial and continuing jobless claims saw short-term US rates fall, and the odds of a quarter-point cut by the Fed rose from about 83% to about 93%. The Fed funds futures market boosted the odds of another quarter-point cut in December (~90% vs.78%). The dollar initially weakened but recovered, though the key levels held, such as $1.09 in the euro, $1.30 in sterling,...

Overview: The US dollar is mostly softer ahead of the September CPI. The euro and Canadian dollar have recorded new lows for the move. The greenback extended its gains against the yen to JPY149.55 but has fallen to new session lows in the European morning near JPY148.85. Given the pushback against Fed Chair Powell's 50 bp cut last month revealed in the FOMC minutes, it will take more than a soft headline CPI today to renew speculation of another large move. In fact,...

Overview: We suspect the market overreacted to the US jobs data, which was tainted by the lowest "establishment" response in over two decades and seasonal adjustments were likely thrown off by Hurricane Helene and the 33k strike at Boeing. We think Fed officials, and more speak today, have confirmed that it was not the game changer than many market participants think, which was likely influenced by positioning. It did help facilitate the dollar's upside correction...

Overview: The dollar enjoys a firmer tone today. The escalating conflict in the Middle East is keeping the market on edge. And then there is tomorrow's US employment report. Among the G10 currencies, sterling has been the hardest hit. It is off around 1% after Bank of England Governor Bailey seemed to signal that after pausing last month, the central bank may turn more aggressive here in Q4. Nearly all the emerging market currencies are lower. Global equities and...

Overview: The dollar is bid as the upside correction that began last week continues today. The greenback is trading above last week's highs against most of the G10 currencies. The yen is the notable exception. Comments by BOJ Governor Ueda has reiterated his intention to raise rates further provided the economy continues to perform as the central bank expects. The dollar has unwound yesterday's gains against the yen and is lower than last week's close (~JPY146.15)....

Overview: The US dollar is mostly firmer, though consolidating against most of the G10 currencies. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are the strongest, while the Scandis and Antipodean currencies are the heaviest. Among emerging market currencies, a handful of Asian currencies, including the Chinese yuan are higher, but central European currencies, the South African rand, and the Mexican peso are softer.The news stream is light but the threat of the escalation of the...

Overview: The capital markets have begun the week in subdued fashion. Japanese markets were closed for the Mountain Day celebration, and this week's key events, which include US and UK CPI, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting and potentially its first rate cut. The uncertainty about the market positioning and the extent of the carry-trade may also be dampening activity. The yen and Swiss franc are the weakest of the G10 currencies today, off around 0.4%. The...