Tag Archives: U.K.

Overview: The market's reaction to the firmer than expected January CPI seems exaggerated. We do not think it was the game-changer for the Federal Reserve that the market seemed to think. The dollar was driven higher, and it is stabilizing today, though the euro and sterling extended their losses, most of the other G10 currencies did not. After the yen's six-week slide did not elicit a response from Japanese officials, yesterday's drop did, and this may have helped...

Overview: The US dollar is enjoying a mostly firmer bias ahead of today's CPI report. Sterling is the strongest among the G10 currencies after a more resilient than expected labor market report. The dollar extended its gains against the Japanese yen to a new high since last November, but the market seems cautious as it approaches JPY150, where large options expire today. On the other hand, emerging market currencies are mostly faring better. The Mexican peso and...

Overview: The US dollar is bid across the board and posting its best session of the month. It is up between about 0.5% (Canadian dollar) to almost 1.0% (Australian dollar) among the G10 currencies. Among the emerging market currencies, only the Russian ruble is holding its own. Approaching CNY7.20, the greenback is near two-month highs against the yuan. The dollar has been bolstered by rising US rates. The US two-year yield is up six basis points to near 4.20%,...

Overview:  The mostly consolidative week for the US dollar continues. Most for the G10 currencies are +/- about 0.25% today and only a slightly wider range for the week. The odds of a Fed rate cut in March is virtually unchanged on the week at around 75%. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is practically flat on the day and week. The Russian ruble and Mexican peso lead today's advancers, while eastern and central European currencies are laggards. The...

Overview: After gaining for the past couple of sessions to open the New Year, the dollar is mostly softer today. The yen is the main exception. The greenback was bid above the JPY144 area where chunky options expire today. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer though there are a few exceptions in Asia, like the South Korean won and Thai baht. Still, the general tone is consolidative ahead of tomorrow US jobs data and the eurozone's CPI. Equities, which...

Overview: The US dollar begins the new year on a firm note. It is recovering against nearly all the G10 and emerging market currencies today after depreciating in the holiday-thin markets over the past couple of weeks. Japanese markets are on holiday until Thursday. The yen and Swiss franc are the poorest performers among the G10 currencies. Among emerging market currencies, the Mexican peso, Hungarian forint, and South African rand are bucking the trend to post...

Overview: The US dollar is trading softer against all the G10 currencies ahead of what is expected to be a soft November CPI report, which paves the way for a pivot by the FOMC tomorrow. It is expected to signal that policy may be sufficiently restrictive and anticipate being able to cut rates next year more than it thought in September, even if not as much as is priced into the market. Among emerging market currencies, central European currencies are leading the...

Overview: Outside of the Australian dollar, which has fallen by around 0.6% following the RBA meeting and the softer final PMI, which may have dragged the New Zealand dollar a lower by around 0.25%, the other G10 currencies trading little changed ahead of the start of the North American session. The eurozone and UK final PMIs were revised higher. Central European currencies lead the emerging market currencies. China reported better than expected Caixin PMI and...

Overview: The dollar is beginning the week on a soft note, despite the modest backing up of yields over the last couple of sessions and better than expected data, including Black Friday sales and the preliminary November PMI. It is sporting minor losses against all the G10 currencies, but the Canadian dollar, which is the weakest of the major currencies this quarter and month. The greenback is also lower against most emerging market currencies, but the Turkish lira...

Overview:  A poor reception to the 30-year Treasury sale and Federal Reserve Powell pledged to raise rates again, if necessary, not exactly a new ground, but it spooked the doves--driving rates sharply higher and fueling a strong dollar recovery. There was a large five basis point tail on the bond sale. The eight-day rally in the S&P 500 and nine-day advance in the NASDAQ was snapped like dry kindling. The S&P 500 comes into today down on the week. The...