Tag Archives: trade

One of the most significant market responses to Russia's attack on Ukraine is in the expectations for the trajectory of monetary policy in many of the high-income countries, including the US, eurozone, UK and Canada.  The market has abandoned speculation of a 50 bp hike in mid-March by the FOMC and the Bank of England.  It has also scaled back the ECB's move to 20 bp this year from 50 bp.  Even after the Russian invasion, the market had discounted a 75% chance that...

Overview:  The capital and commodity markets are becoming less orderly.  The scramble for dollars is pressuring the cross-currency basis swaps.  Volatility is racing higher in bond and stock markets. The industrial metals and other supplies, and foodstuffs that Russia and Ukraine are important providers have skyrocketed.  Large Asia Pacific equity markets, including Japan, Hong Kong, China, and Taiwan fell by 1%-2%, while South Korea, Australia, and India managed...

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a lower bias ahead of the September CPI report due early in the North American session. Long-term yields softened yesterday and slipped further today, leaving the US 10-year yield near 1.56%.  European benchmark yields are 3-4 bp lower. The shorter-end of the US coupon curve, the two-year yield is firmer. Equities are enjoying a slightly better tone, though Japan, Taiwan, and Australia’s markets traded heavily in the Asia...

Overview: Investors worry that surging energy prices will sap economic activity and boost prices.  It is sparking a sharp drop in equities and bonds while lifting the dollar.  The Nikkei fell for the eighth consecutive session, and today's 1% drop brings the cumulative decline to 9%.  South Korea's Kospi also fell by more than 1%.  Some of the smaller markets in the region, like Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, rose by more than 1%.  They are an anomaly. ...

How (Not) to Win Friends and Influence People Overview: There are two big themes in the capital markets today. The first is the ongoing push of the Chinese state into what was the private sector. Today’s actions involve breaking Ant’s lending arms into separate entities, with the state taking a stake. This weighed on Chinese shares and Hong Kong, where many are lists. On the other hand, Japanese markets extended their recent gains. The Nikkei, for example, is has...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.18% to 1.0831 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: New record highs in the US S&P 500 and NASDAQ coupled with China allowing Tencent to acquire a search engine helped lift Asia Pacific equities. It is the first back-to-back by MSCI’s regional index for more than two weeks. Australia’s market was a notable exception. The lockdown...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.26% to 1.1003 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 8 (see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Global stocks are moving higher today. Fears of a new lockdown in Tokyo amid rising covid cases weighed on Japanese stocks, a notable exception as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for its fifth session of the past six. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is edging to new record highs today...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.03% to 1.0802 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview:  After reversing higher yesterday, the US dollar sees follow-through gains today, leaving the euro around a cent lower from yesterday’s highs. Sterling’s surge is also being tempered. Most emerging market currencies are lower as well. The jump in bond yields has stalled, but only...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.04% to 1.0821 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 5(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: While equities continue to march higher, the dollar is softer amid position squaring ahead of the US jobs data. Gold has stabilized after yesterday’s shellacking. Estimates for US nonfarm payrolls appear to have been creeping higher, encouraged by the ADP, PMI, and weekly initial...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.06% to 1.0761 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ gapped higher yesterday to record-levels, and the reflation theme lifted Asia Pacific shares for the third session today. South Korea, Taiwan, and China led the advance. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 gapped higher and is consolidating, seemingly waiting for...