Tag Archives: TLT

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.04% to 1.1578 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is enjoying modest gains against most currencies as prospects of both tax reform and additional monetary tightening by the Fed carry over from last week. The strong showing of the Liberal Democrats in Japan, where the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.25% to 1.1539 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The 30th anniversary of the 1987 equity market crash the major US benchmarks at record highs. The drop in the market was at least partly a function of the lack of capacity, sufficient instruments, and regulatory regime. Each of these...

Summary: Market opinion on the next Fed chief is very fluid. BOE Governor Carney sticks to view, but short-sterling curve flattens. New Bank of Italy Governor sought. A second term for Kuroda may be more likely after this weekend election. The market is fickle. It has jumped from one candidate to another as the most likely Fed Chair. Until his belated and mild criticism of the President dealing with race issues,...

Summary: Risk that NAFTA collapses weighs on CAD and MXN. Yen is slightly firmer despite US yields edging higher and weekend polls suggesting LDP could nearly secure a 2/3 majority of its own. The sterling is consolidating after sharp moves at the end of last week. (Greetings from San Francisco, where I will be speaking at a CFA seminar on currencies tomorrow. The rebuilding from destruction of the of...

Summary: Rise in paper asset prices, including so-called cyber currencies, reflects the abundance of capital. Have we forgotten what Minski taught again? Political considerations may dominate ahead of the ECB meeting later this month. Why should we think there is anything amiss by looking at the global capital markets? The S&P 500 and the German Dax are at record levels. The Japanese market is at 20-year...

There was a huge sigh of relief among investors when it became clear that the populist-nationalist wave that ostensibly led to Brexit and Trump’s election was not going to sweep through Europe. The euro gapped higher on April 24, and it has not looked back. We have suggested that with the outcome of the German election, European politics shift from tailwind to headwind. Spain’s most serious constitutional crisis in 40...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.03% to 1.1533 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The EU’s leading negotiator whipsawed sterling yesterday. The net effect was to ease fears that the UK would leave the EU without the agreement  Initial concerns that the negotiations had stalled sent sterling to nearly  $1.3120. The...

The dollar was bid before the US economic data. The market responded quickly upon seeing the disappointing 0.1% rise in core CPI. Given the base effect, the 0.1% increase kept the year-over-year rate at 1.7% for the fourth consecutive month. The dollar reversed lower. Retail sales were largely in line with expectations. The 1.6% headline increased missed expectations by 0.1%, which is exactly what the August series was...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.09% to 1.155 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 12(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Following the release of the FOMC minutes from last month’s meeting, the consensus narrative that has emerged says that it was dovish because there is a growing worry the reason inflation fell is not simply due to transitory factors. This...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.04% to 1.1515 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is consolidating after retreating since reversing lower following the US jobs data at the end of last week. While the greenback has largely been confined to yesterday’s ranges against the major currencies, the euro has made a...