In spite of rate differentials, the dynamics driving US Treasuries and possible changes in global growth may limit yen and franc decline.The start of the year has seen the Japanese yen and Swiss franc appreciate strongly against the US dollar (they rose by 5.6% and 4.4% respectively between 1 January and 22 February) despite higher US yields. However, this rise in US yields came with heightened market volatility, favouring safe haven currencies such as the yen and franc.Indeed, both...
Read More »Downward pressure on Swiss franc could fade in 2018
While its persistent weakness leads us to change our short-term forecast for the franc, our outlook for the currency next year remains unchanged.The Swiss franc remains weak, notably against the euro, despite geopolitical tensions, elevated political uncertainty in Spain and some euro weakness relative to the US dollar. This means that the unattractiveness of the franc (based on its high valuation and low yield) outweighs its defensive features.In the short term, given interest rates...
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