Tag Archives: Spain

Summary: Spain’s Banco Popular is scrambling ahead of its meeting with the ECB tomorrow; shares are around 50% in three sessions. Italy has two banks that may see the same deal Monte Paschi negotiated with the EU. Portugal banks are still putting loan loss reserves and provisions aside. Eurozone The eurozone appears to be in rare form. The political threat that seemed so palpable at the start of the year has...

Swiss Franc EURCHF - Euro Swiss Franc December 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge The pound has tailed off from its recent high against the Swiss Franc over the last couple of weeks with rates for GBP CHF sitting at 1.27 for this pair. The pound seems to have climbed as far as it can against most of the major currencies with the current economic and political factors at...

Macroview There is a risk that government will not be able to serve full term, but markets are now becoming more focused on the Italian referendum in December. After 10 months of political impasse, Spain is set to have a new government at the end of this week. The decision by the Socialist party (PSOE) to abstain in the second parliament investiture vote clears the way for a minority government to be formed under prime minister Mariano Rajoy and thus avoids the need for a third general...

Spain will try to break its nine-month political stalemate this week. Two months after the second round of general elections in Spain on 26 June, no government has been formed. Mariano Rajoy, the Popular Party (PP) leader and caretaker prime minister has been nominated by the king to head the government. The investiture debate will start on August 30, with a confidence vote on August 31. If unsuccessful, a second vote will be held on September 2, with a lower threshold for success (simple...

Summary: Spain and Portugal need to make some relatively small budget adjustments or will be denied some transfer payments. Spain’s political situation is fluid, but another window of opportunity to break the logjam is at hand. The euro seems immune to these fiscal developments; some retracement objectives are in sight. The eurozone finance ministers have accepted the EC’s recommendation that Spain and...

The shock of Great Britain’s vote to leave the European Union has already thrown global financial markets into disarray and cost Prime Minister David Cameron his job, but it will take years before the geopolitical impact of the Brexit referendum fully materializes. The political uncertainty generated by the “Leave” vote will reach far beyond 10 Downing Street, potentially into Scotland, Northern Ireland, Eurozone capitals, and beyond. It may even mark the beginning of the end of...

The re-run of the Spanish general elections produced a fragmented parliament again, but a minority government could take shape. In Europe, Greece, Portugal and Italy remain political flash points. Read full report hereAfter an inconclusive vote in the December general election and the subsequent failure of Spain’s political parties to reach an agreement to form a government, Spaniards returned to the polls on 26 June. Once again, the results produced a fragmented parliament, but traditional...

Summary Center-right PP won the Spanish election. Anti-EU forces were setback. Rajoy needs a coalition partner. The UK has decided to seek a divorce from the EU after a 43-year rocky marriage. It was not an overwhelming decision.  Brexit won by 52%-48% margin, seemingly too small for such a momentous decision. The UK has not decided exactly when it will formally begin the divorce proceedings, and it wants to be...

Sterling is hovering around seven cents above last week’s lows as many short-term participants better position themselves for the UK to vote to say in the EU, even though many opinion polls show a statistical dead heat.   The German Constitutional Court dismissed claims that the ECB’s Outright Market Transactions does not violate the German Constitution. Italy’s run-off for local elections was held over the past...

Many people understand politics and economics to be two different disciplines. I remember in graduate school more than two decades ago, many colleagues and professors operationally defined political economy as how politics, by which they meant the state, screws up economics. I spoke at the Fixed Income Leaders Summit earlier this week and teased that many seemed to think that politics comes from the ancient Greek “poly”...