Tag Archives: S&P 500

As the November 2024 election draws near, the election outcome will profoundly affect the financial markets. Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the presidency, each administration will bring distinct policies creating investment opportunities and potential risks for investors. With a divisive political landscape, it is crucial to understand how these potential outcomes can shape the stock market and your portfolio strategy. Let’s break down the key...

We are currently in the “everything market.” It doesn’t matter what you have probably invested in; it is currently increasing in value. However, it isn’t likely for the reasons you think. A recent Marketwatch interview with the always bullish Jim Paulson got his reasoning for the rally. “It is this cocktail of ‘full support’ at the front end of a bull market which commonly has created an ‘Everything Market’ during the early part of a new bull. That is, for a...

Last week, the Federal Reserve made a significant move by cutting its overnight lending rate by 50 basis points. This marks the first rate cut since 2020, signaling the Fed is aggressively supporting the economy amid a backdrop of softening economic data. For investors, understanding how similar rate cuts have historically impacted markets and which sectors tend to benefit is key to navigating the months ahead. In this post, we will explore the historical market...

It certainly seems that technological advances make our lives better. Instead of writing a letter, stamping it, and mailing it (which was vastly more personal), we now send emails. Rather than driving to a local retailer or manufacturer, we order it online. Of course, we mustn’t dismiss the rise of social media, which connects us to everyone and everything more than ever. Economists and experts have long argued that technological advances drive U.S. economic...

Since the end of the “Yen Carry Trade” correction in August, bullish positioning has returned with a vengeance, yet two key risks face investors as September begins. While bullish positioning and optimism are ingredients for a rising market, there is more to this story. It is true that “a rising tide lifts all boats,” meaning that as the market rises, investors begin to chase higher stock prices, leading to a virtual buying spiral. Such leads to an improvement in...

In a recent discussion with Adam Taggart via Thoughtful Money, we quickly touched on the similarities between the U.S. and Japanese monetary policies around the 11-minute mark. However, that discussion warrants a deeper dive. As we will review, Japan has much to tell us about the future of the U.S. economically. Let’s start with the deficit. Much angst exists over the rise in interest rates. The concern is whether the government can continue to fund itself, given...

As noted in this past weekend’s newsletter, following the “Yen Carry Trade” blowup just three weeks ago, the market has quickly reverted to more extreme short-term overbought conditions. Note: We wrote this article on Saturday, so all data and analysis is as of Friday’s market close. For example, three weeks ago, the growth sectors of the market were highly oversold, while the previous lagging defensive sectors were overbought. That was not surprising, as the...

The latest retail sales report seems to have given Wall Street something to cheer about. Headlines touting resilience in consumer spending increased hopes of a “soft landing” boosting the stock market. However, as is often the case, the devil is in the details. We uncover a more troubling picture when we peel back the layers of this seemingly positive data. Seasonal adjustments, downward revisions, and rising delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans suggest...

A Universal Basic Income (UBI) sounds great in theory. According to a previous study by the Roosevelt Institute, it could permanently increase the U.S. economy by trillions of dollars. While such socialistic policies sound great in theory, history, and data, they aren’t the economic saviors they are touted to be. What Is A Universal Basic Income (UBI) To understand why the theory of universal basic income (UBI) is heavily flawed, we need to understand what UBI...

On Monday morning, investors woke up to plunging stock markets as the “Yen Carry Trade” blew up. While media headlines suggested the sell-off was due to fears of a recession, slowing employment growth, or fears over Israel and Iran, such is not the case. As previously noted, headline events like the economy, employment, or geopolitical conflict are quickly evaluated and hedged by market participants. However, as we saw on Monday, what sparks a global sell-off is...