Tag Archives: newslettersent

The Used Goods Question Retail sales in several countries like Germany, Japan and Switzerland continue to fall or they remain steady for years. In the United States they have strongly risen recently. We should remind readers, that used goods sold via Ebay or similar, are not contained in this statistics. Still they create economic value for the purchases. By mentality, Swiss, Germans or Japanese pay more attention so...

Headlines Week April 03, 2017 We were arguing in the previous months, that the EUR/CHF is trending towards parity. There are three reasons: Continuing SNB interventions Strengthening Swiss local demand, as also visible in the GDP release. Speculators increase their dollar shorts against Euro and reduce them against CHF. The tendency of point 3 had been interrupted when the ECB appeared to be less dovish. FX Last week:...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

Stock Markets EM FX was mixed last week.  The rebound in oil helped some, such as COP, RUB, and MXN.  On the other hand, idiosyncratic political risks weighed on South Africa.   This week could pose a challenge to EM, with lots of Fed speakers, FOMC minutes, and US jobs data. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, March 29 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge Thailand Thailand reports March CPI Monday, which is...

Swiss Franc Currency Index Weak inflation figures in the euro zone let the common currency fall against both the dollar and the Swiss franc. Still last week, the Swiss Franc index had some losses against the US dollar index. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 01(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is...

Swiss Franc Currency Index Weak inflation figures in the euro zone let the common currency fall against both the dollar and the Swiss franc. Still last week, the Swiss Franc index had some losses against the US dollar index. Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 01(see more posts on Swiss Franc Index, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Swiss Franc Currency Index (3 years) The Swiss Franc index is...

For the first time in 57 months, a span of nearly five years, the Fed’s preferred metric for US consumer price inflation reached the central bank’s explicit 2% target level. The PCE Deflator index was 2.12% higher in February 2017 than February 2016. Though rhetoric surrounding this result is often heated, the actual indicated inflation is decidedly not despite breaking above for once. In many ways 2.12% is hugely...

Gross Domestic Product was revised slightly higher for Q4 2016, which is to say it wasn’t meaningfully different. At 2.05842%, real GDP projects output growing for one quarter close to its projected potential, a less than desirable result. It is fashionable of late to discuss 2% or 2.1% as if these are good numbers consistent with a healthy economy. This level of advance, however, factors none of the imbalances and...

EUR/CHF The SNB is intervening for 3 bn. CHF per week, this is far too much at these elevated Euro and Dollar levels. With two times positive economic data (here and here) about good news on internal demand, she might be finally be ready to let the euro fall. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, March 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rate has opened up flat...

As the UK triggered its formal departure from the European Union yesterday, gold demand from UK investors remained ongoing and robust with increased numbers of British investors diversifying into physical gold in order to hedge the considerable uncertainty and volatility that the coming months and years will bring. The U.K. government yesterday triggered Article 50–the legal mechanism which will start negotiations on...