Tag Archives: newslettersent

The Market Has its Head Buried Deep In The Sand Several “black swans” are looming which could inflict a financial nuclear accident on the U.S. markets and financial system. I say “black swans” in quotes because a limited audience is aware of these issues – potentially catastrophic problems that are curiously ignored by the mainstream financial media and financial markets. The most immediate problem is the Treasury...

Last weekend, European leaders gathered in Rome for the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome. They discussed, not for the first time, how to get the EU back on track. And they told each other they are still committed to the Union and believe in its future. (We’ve heard that one before, too.) But let’s just suppose that, when the European leaders sat down for lunch at the Quirinal Palace, some of them had a little too...

Source: cnbc.com - Click to enlarge I had time this afternoon, as I prepare for my TMA presentation tomorrow night here in Hong Kong, to find my clip from yesterday on CNBC, where I suggested the risk of a dollar recovery after it lost downside momentum in North America on Monday. There has not been much follow through today, though the euro broke below $1.08 in late-Asia and is maintaining the break in early...

Earlier today, I had the opportunity to discuss the outlook for sterling and the US dollar on Bloomberg TV with Rishaad Salamat and Haidi Lun.  It is a momentous day with Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty being formally triggered by UK Prime Minister May, nine months after what was, at least initially, a non-binding referendum. European Council President Tusk is expected formally to respond for the EU before the...

  Unanimity Syndrome If there is one thing apparently no-one believes to be possible, it is a resurgence of consumer price inflation. Actually, we are not expecting it to happen either. If one compares various “inflation” data published by the government, it seems clear that the recent surge in headline inflation was largely an effect of the rally in oil prices from their early 2016 low. Since the rally in oil prices...

India’s Rapid Degradation This is Part XI of a series of articles (the most recent of which is linked here) in which I have provided regular updates on what started as the demonetization of 86% of India’s currency. The story of demonetization and the ensuing developments were merely a vehicle for me to explore Indian institutions, culture and society. Tribal cultures face an inherent contradiction. They create poison...

Headlines Week March 27, 2017 We were arguing in the last weeks, that the EUR/CHF is trending towards parity. There are three reasons: Continuing SNB interventions Strengthening Swiss local demand, as also visible in the GDP release. Speculators increase their dollar shorts against Euro and reduce them against CHF. Point 3 was not fulfilled last week. FX Llst weeks: The EUR/CHF suddenly appreciated with the ECB...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, March 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF The Swiss Franc continues to hold the higher ground as global uncertainty continues to dominate the markets. UBS Consumption Indicator is released tomorrow morning which should give some further clues to as the health of the Swiss economy. The numbers are important as the consumption is the most important...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Careening from Crisis to Crisis Back in the old days, homes had fuse boxes. Today, of course, any new house is built with a circuit breaker panel and many older homes have been upgraded at one time or another. However, the fuse is a much more interesting analogy for the monetary system. When a fuse burned out, it was...