Tag Archives: newslettersent

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50.  The Fed spent the last month forward guiding the market to the rate hike they implemented today. Interest rates, real and nominal, moved up in anticipation of a more aggressive Fed rate hiking cycle. Post meeting, a lot of the rise came out of the market. Nominal and...

Swiss Franc Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, February 2017(see more posts on Switzerland Producer Price Index, ) Source: Investing.com - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF Today is crucial for Swiss Franc exchange rates with a number of economic releases and political events happening around the world which are likely to have a direct bearing on the direction of the Swiss Franc. The US Federal Reserve...

In Switzerland, this ski season has been disappointing, particularly if you have school aged children. During the Vaud school holiday this season, the fourth week of February, there was limited snow. Even at high resorts like Verbier, snow conditions were fairly average across the week. The week before there was good snow. But then everyone was still at school. A two-week school holiday in February would increase the...

Summary: China will make its mainland bond market more accessible. As China’s portfolio of patents grows it will likely become more protective of others’ intellectual property rights. PRC President Xi will likely visit US President Trump early next month. The market’s immediate focus is on today’s FOMC meeting and Dutch elections.  However, China’s annual legislative session (National People’s Congress) ended...

The first major economic data of 2017 from China was highly disappointing to expectations of either stability or hopes for actual acceleration. On all counts for the combined January-February period, the big three statistics missed: Industrial Production was 6.3%, Fixed Asset Investment 8.9%, and Retail Sales just 9.5%. For retail sales, the primary avenue for what is supposed to be a “rebalancing” Chinese economy,...

In August 2014, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer admitted to an audience in Sweden the possibility in some unusually candid terms that maybe they (economists, not Sweden) didn’t know what they were doing. His speech was lost in the times, those being the middle of that year where the Fed having already started to taper QE3 and 4 were becoming supremely confident that they would soon end them. At Janet...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, March 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The UK is edging closer to triggering Article 50 to start the formal negotiations of its exit from the EU. The House of Commons is expected to reject the amendments submitted by the House of Lords. If the House of Lords passes the stripped version, Prime Minister May could announce her intention to trigger...

Economic Reports Scorecard The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates again at their meeting next week. They obviously view the recent cyclical upturn as being durable and the inflation data as pointing to the need for higher rates. Our market based indicators agree somewhat but nominal and real interest rates are still below their mid-December peaks so I don’t think a lot has changed. More...

“I don’t understand you,’ said Alice. ‘It’s dreadfully confusing!’ ‘That’s the effect of living backwards,’ the Queen said kindly: ‘it always makes one a little giddy at first–‘ ‘Living backwards!’ Alice repeated in great astonishment. ‘I never heard of such a thing!’ ‘–but there’s one great advantage in it, that one’s memory works both ways.’ ‘I’m sure mine only works one way,’ Alice remarked. ‘I can’t remember things...

Unemployment Rate (not seasonally adjusted) Registered unemployment in February 2017 – According to the State Secretariat of Economic Affairs (SECO) surveys, 159’809 unemployed persons were registered at the Regional Employment Centers (RAV) at the end of February 2017, 4’657 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate thus fell from 3.7% in January 2017 to 3.6% in the reporting month.  Switzerland...