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Can the US CPI Break the Dollar out of its Consolidation?

Overview: Stocks and bonds are trading higher, and the dollar is narrowly mixed ahead of the December US CPI report. Most of the large bourses in Asia Pacific advanced, led by Japan to new 30-year-plus highs. Hong Kong's Hang Seng snapped seven-day slide to post its first gain of 2024. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 0.33%, to recoup most of its losses in the past two sessions. US index futures enjoy a modest upside bias. Benchmark 10-year yields in Europe are off...

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History vs Economics: Explaining the Causes of the Great Depression

“Who controls the past now, controls the future. Who controls the present now, controls the past.” That is from “Testify,” a song by newly minted rock ‘n’ roll Hall of Famers Rage against the Machine. I don’t know if Phillip W. Magness of the American Institute for Economic Research is fan enough to be familiar with that, but I bet he knows the original source: George Orwell’s 1984. Whether or not it informed a recent study he coauthored is unclear, but that line has...

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The Establishment Is Unmasking Itself

Two weeks ago, I wrote an article laying out the political class’s struggle to preserve its legitimacy by fighting to regain control over the digital information space. The piece built on Martin Gurri’s thesis that the wide adoption of the internet has caused an information revolution that, similar to the adoption of the printing press, has allowed dissent to grow and spread beyond the control of the ruling classes. The results have been political shocks like the...

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Don’t be Burned in the Churn

Overview: The broad consolidation in the dollar after the gyrations at the end of last week continues, and within it the greenback is a bit softer today. Among the G10 currencies, only the yen is failing to post gains. Most emerging market currencies, led by central Europe, are also firmer today. A notable exception is a handful of Asian currencies, include the South Korean won, Taiwanese dollar, and the Philippine peso. The market's focus is on tomorrow's US CPI....

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Immigration and Geopolitics: Should Latvia Have an Open Border with Russia?

In the debate over immigration among laissez-faire liberals and libertarians, one aspect of the open-borders side becomes quickly apparent: the debate generally ignores problems related to geopolitics such as international conflict, ethnic strife, and expansionist states. Rather, the libertarian advocates of open borders tend to focus overwhelmingly on why rich countries should open their borders to migrants from lower-income countries. These open-border arguments...

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America’s Fiat Money Gestapo: The Untold History of the Secret Service

There is an untold story in American monetary history. Some are reluctant even to discuss it. I’m referring to the US Secret Service’s very own role in the destruction of sound money in America. As constitutional, sound money in the form of physical gold and silver coins—whether minted privately or not—became an annoying impediment to expanding the size and power of the federal government, central planners began circulating unbacked paper proxies and formed...

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