Tag Archives: JPY

The US dollar is rising against all the major currencies today.  The Australian dollar is retracing a sufficient part of its recent gains to suggest that the current phase of the US dollar’s recovery is not over. Given that the Aussie topped out a week before the other major currencies, it is reasonable that it begins recovering first.  Its recent resilience was noted, but that has evaporated today, but a 0.8% drop by early European activity.   We had noted the divergence between what...

The US dollar is mostly weaker today.  It appears to be consolidating the gains scored since the reversal on May 3. Sterling and the Australian dollar are leading the way early in Europe.   The Australian dollar’s gains appear more intuitively clear.  The minutes from the recent RBA meeting indicated that it was a closer decision.  This means that a follow-up rate cut next month is unlikely, which is what we have argued.  While short-term participants may be surprised today, the...

The most notable thing is not what has happened, but what has not happened.  The market has not responded to the soft Chinese data over the weekend.  Chinese equities began softer but recovered fully and the Shanghai Composite closed on its highs.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is snapping a two-day losing streak with a 0.5% gain. The Australian dollar is often perceived be influenced by developments in China.  China’s disappointing industrial output figures (6.0% from 6.8% in March and...

The US dollar extended its recovery that began on May 3.  Its technical condition remains constructive, even though up until now, the gains are still consistent with a modest correction rather than a trend reversal.   The details of the employment report, if not the headline, coupled with the 1.3% increase in retail sales, have boosted confidence that the US economy is rebounding in Q2 after a six-month slow patch.   The average of the Atlanta Fed (2.8%) and NY Fed GDP trackers (1.2%) is...

The US dollar continued the recovery begun May 3 and rose against most of the major currencies over the past week.  A nearly 3.5% rally in oil prices, the fifth weekly gain in the past six weeks (a $9.5 advance over the period), helped the Norwegian krone turn in a steady performance.  The Canadian dollar's 0.2% decline put it in second place.   With the strongest rise in US retail sales in a year, prompting the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker to rise to 2.8% for Q2, many observers are...

The Japanese yen is recovering from two-day two percent decline.  The yen is the strongest of the majors today, rising about 0.6%.   The greenback initially extended its gains marginally in early Tokyo before the selling pressure emerging.  The price action reinforces the importance of the JPY109.50 resistance area.   The Nikkei initially moved higher and filled the gap created by the sharply lower opening on May 3, following disappointment with the BOJ lack of action at the end of the...

Sometimes the mountain looks clearer from the plain the summit to paraphrase a American-Lebanese poet.   The dollar appears to have entered a new phase on May 3.  On that day, it reversed higher against the euro, yen, and sterling for lows not seen in a while.     It is tempting to construct a fundamental narrative for the change.  However, the usual drivers are noticeable by their absence.  The US economic data has been mixed, including the employment report that often sets the tone for...

The key issue facing the foreign exchange market is whether the modicum of strength the US dollar demonstrated last week is the beginning of a sustainable move.  It is possible that the market is again at a juncture in which the price action will drive the narrative rather than the other way around.  A move above JPY108 and a decline in the euro below $1.1350 signal a start to a broader dollar recovery that may have begun last week with impressive gains against the dollar-bloc. The RBA’s...

The US dollar rose against all the major currencies last week. The importance of the price action does not lie with the magnitude or the breadth of the advance. Instead, the two takeaway technical observations are 1) the seemingly one-way market for euro and yen ended and 2) the dollar-bloc currencies appear to have put in at least a medium-term top. We hasten to note that the fundamental developments have not shifted a more dollar-friendly near-term direction.  Investors,  judging from...

The US dollar is firm, near the best levels of the week against the euro, yen, and sterling. However, against the dollar-bloc and several actively traded emerging market currencies, including the Turkish lira and South African rand, the greenback has given back some of yesterday’s gains.   Oil is snapping a four-day decline.  News that US output fell by 113k barrels a day last week, the biggest drop in eight months, coupled with a Canadian wildfire that is threatening as much as one...