Tag Archives: jobs

The week ahead sees three major central bank meetings and the US employment report. It will likely be the most important work before a hiatus that runs through the end of August.  Of course, and perhaps more than ever, market participants are well aware that the US President’s communication and penchant for disruption is a bit of a wild card. That said, the equity market has learned to take individual company references...

The US jobs report was broadly disappointing. However, the Federal Reserve will look through it and investors should too. A June hike is still by far the most likely scenario. The US created 164k net new jobs in April, and when coupled with the 32k upward revision in March, it was near expectations. The source of disappointment hourly earnings. March’s 2.7% year-over-year pace was revised to 2.6%, and there it remained...

The US dollar fell last month in response to the disappointing non-farm payroll report. However, in general, the jobs report is not the market mover that it was in the past. With unemployment is at cyclical lows of 4.1% and poised to fall further. Weekly jobless claims and continuing claims at or near lows in a generation, though over qualification is more difficult than previously. The monthly net job creation is a...

The US jobs growth slowed in March more than expected, but the details of the report suggest investors and policymakers will look through it. The poor weather seemed to have played a role. Construction jobs fell (15k) for the first time since last July, and the hours worked by production employees and non-supervisory worker slipped. United States The 103k net new jobs were the least since last September when storms...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.08% to 1.1779 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, April 06(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Trade and equity market volatility, which are not completely separate, continue to dominate investors’ interest.  Many had come around to accept that while trade tensions were running high, it was likely to be mostly posturing. This...

The German Social Democrats have endorsed the Grand Coalition, ending the period of political uncertainty and paralysis in Germany since the last September’s election. The polls have suggested nearly 60% of the SPD would support joining the government and the actual outcome looks to be closer to 66%. In 2013, when the SPD had a similar vote, three-quarters favored a Grand Coalition. Among the differences is that the SPD...

United States The headline US non-farm payrolls disappointed, rising by 148k instead of the consensus of 180k-200k. However, the other details were largely as expected and are unlikely to change views about the trajectory of Fed policy or the general direction of markets. It is a very much steady as she goes story. The headline miss is not really made up for by the upward revision in the November series from 228k to...

The year 2000 was a transition year in a lot of ways. Though Y2K amounted to mild mass hysteria, people did have to get used to writing the date with 20 in front of the year rather than 19. It was a new millennium (depending on your view of Year 0) that seemed to have started off under the best possible terms. Not only were stocks on fire at the outset, the economy was, too. The idea of this “new economy” leading...

There is no argument that the New Deal of the 1930’s completely changed the political situation in America, including the fundamental relationship of the government to its people. The way it came about was entirely familiar, a sense from among a large (enough) portion of the general population that the paradigm of the time no longer worked. It was only for whichever political party that spoke honestly to that...

The payroll report for October 2017 was still affected by the summer storms in Texas and Florida. That was expected. The Establishment Survey estimates for August and September were revised higher, the latter from a -33k to +18k. Most economists were expecting a huge gain in October to snapback from that hurricane number, but the latest headline was just +261k. For those two months combined, the headline advanced at an...