There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. The Fed spent the last month forward guiding the market to the rate hike they implemented today. Interest rates, real and nominal, moved up in anticipation of a more aggressive Fed rate hiking cycle. Post meeting, a lot of the rise came out of the market. Nominal and...
Read More »Bi-Weekly Economic Review
Economic Reports Scorecard The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates again at their meeting next week. They obviously view the recent cyclical upturn as being durable and the inflation data as pointing to the need for higher rates. Our market based indicators agree somewhat but nominal and real interest rates are still below their mid-December peaks so I don’t think a lot has changed. More...
Read More »Time, The Biggest Risk
If there is still no current or present indication of rising economic fortunes, and there isn’t, then the “reflation” idea turns instead to what might be different this time as compared to the others. In 2013 and 2014, it was QE3 and particularly the intended effects (open ended and faster paced, a bigger commitment by the Fed to purportedly do whatever it took) upon expectations that supposedly set it apart from the...
Read More »They’re Worried You Might Buy Bitcoin or Gold – Precious Metals Supply and Demand
See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Bitcoin Mania The price of gold has been rising, but perhaps not enough to suit the hot money. Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin has shot up even faster. From $412, one year ago, to $1290 on Friday, it has gained over 200% (and, unlike gold, we can say that Bitcoin went up — it’s a speculative asset that goes up and down...
Read More »Bi-Weekly Economic Review
Economic Reports Scorecard The economic data released since my last update has been fairly positive but future growth and inflation expectations, as measured by our market indicators, have waned considerably. There is now a distinct divergence between the current data, stocks and bonds. Bond yields, both real and nominal, have fallen recently even as stocks continue their relentless march higher. The incoming, current...
Read More »US Mint Releases New Fort Knox “Audit Documentation” The First Critical Observations.
In response to a FOIA request the US Mint has finally released reports drafted from 1993 through 2008 related to the physical audits of the US official gold reserves. However, the documents released are incomplete and reveal the audit procedures have not been executed proficiently. Moreover, because the Mint could not honor its promises in full the costs ($3,144.96 US dollars) of the FOIA request have been refunded....
Read More »The Oscars – Gold Plated And Debased Like The Dollar
Submitted by Jan Skoyles via GoldCore.com, The Oscars – Worth Their Weight in Gold? 89th Oscars to air this weekend Oscars have been dipped in 24 karat gold since 1929 If the Oscars were made of solid gold they would weigh 330 ounces 330 ounces of gold is worth $408,210 at today’s prices (nearly €400k & £330k) Only some $630 worth of gold in Oscar statue Oscars cannot be sold due to regulations Steven Spielberg keeps his gold Oscar with the Academy for...
Read More »The Oscars – Gold Plated and Debased Like Dollar
The Oscars - Worth Their Weight in Gold? 89th Oscars to air this weekend Oscars have been dipped in 24 karat gold since 1929 If the Oscars were made of solid gold they would weigh 330 ounces 330 ounces of gold is worth $408,210 at today's prices (nearly €400k & £330k) Oscars cannot be sold, making them a tricky investment piece Steven Spielberg keeps his gold Oscar with the Academy for ‘safe-keeping’ Shows importance of owning gold in safest ways Price of gold has climbed from $20.67...
Read More »Not Recession, Systemic Rupture – Again
For the very few in the mainstream of economics who venture further back in history than October 1929, they typically still don’t go much last April 1925. And when they do, it is only to further bash the gold standard for its presumed role in creating the conditions for 1929. The Brits under guidance of Winston Churchill made a grave mistake, one from which gold advocates could never recover given what followed. There...
Read More »Not Recession, Systemic Rupture – Again
For the very few in the mainstream of economics who venture further back in history than October 1929, they typically still don’t go much last April 1925. And when they do, it is only to further bash the gold standard for its presumed role in creating the conditions for 1929. The Brits under guidance of Winston Churchill made a grave mistake, one from which gold advocates could never recover given what followed. There...
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