Tag Archives: Featured

Geopolitical issues will continue to bubble below the surface for the capital markets. The fallout from the reimposition of US sanctions on Iran has apparently helped lift oil prices in the face of the rising dollar, which often acts as a drag.  In the coming days, the US will take the symbolic step of moving its embassy to Jerusalem. The conflict between Israel and Iranian forces in Syria is escalating. Meanwhile, US...

Stock Markets EM FX ended Friday on a week note and capped of another generally negative week.  Worst performers last week were ARS, BRL, and TRY while the best were ZAR, RUB, and KRW. We remain negative on EM FX and look for losses to continue. US retail sales data Tuesday pose further downside risks to EM FX. Stock Markets Emerging Markets, May 08 - Click to enlarge India India reports April WPI and...

“Literally On Fire” This week brought forward more evidence that we are living in a fabricated world. The popular story-line presents a world of pure awesomeness. The common experience, however,  falls grossly short. There are many degrees of awesomeness, up to total awesomeness – which is where we are these days, in the age of total awesomeness, just a short skip away from the Nirvana era. - Click to enlarge What is...

The cliché of Swiss trains always being on time is challenged by data published on the website opentransportdata.swiss. © Arne9001 | Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge Analysis of this data by 20 Minuten, shows the most frequently delayed trains arrive from Italy. Mendrisio, near the Italian border in the canton of Ticino, was the worst performing station with 30% of trains delayed by 3 minutes or more. Italian delays...

How do we explain our obsession with relatively low risk dangers and our collective blindness to manufactured/marketed scourges that kill tens of thousands of people annually? If you’ve bought a new vehicle recently, you may have noticed some “safety features” that strike many as Nanny State over-reach. You can’t change radio stations, for example, if the vehicle is in reverse. Who knows who or what you’ll run over in...

Global demand for gold is increasing while new discoveries of gold remain small Gold mining output in Australia is forecast to decrease by 50% in the next eight years Decline in global gold mining supply makes a price increase almost certain The demand for gold is increasing, yet new discoveries of the precious metal have not kept pace with the demand. Funds for exploration are historically high, $54.3 billion, up 60...

Schneider-Ammann told reporters in Bern that he would be happy if EFTA-Switzerland secure a free trade deal with Mercosur six months after the EU (Keystone) - Click to enlarge Switzerland is close to concluding a free trade agreement with the four Mercosur countries – Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay – within the framework of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), Swiss Economics Minister Johann...

Chinese exports rose 12.9% year-over-year in April 2018. China Exports, Jan 2008 - Apr 2018(see more posts on China Exports, ) - Click to enlarge Imports were up 20.9%. As always, both numbers sound impressive but they are far short of rates consistent with a growing global economy. China’s participation in global growth, synchronized or not, is a must. The lack of acceleration on the export side tells us a lot...

A Movie We Have Seen Before – Repatriation Effect? There was a sizable increase in the year-on-year growth rate of the true US money supply TMS-2 between February and March. Note that you would not notice this when looking at the official broad monetary aggregate M2, because the component of TMS-2 responsible for the jump is not included in M2. Let us begin by looking at a chart of the TMS-2 growth rate and its...

Before the financial crisis, the real estate bubble and the parallel growth in borrowing meant that the indebtedness of Spanish households spiralled ever higher, reaching a peak of 84.7% of GDP in Q2 2010. Since then, Spanish’s households have tightened their belt, with indebtedness falling to 61.3% of GDP in Q4 2017. However, recent data suggest that the situation might be changing again. Indeed, in 2017, households...