The new IGWT report for 2019 will be published at the end of May… …and for the first time a Mandarin version will be released as well. In the meantime, our friends at Incrementum have decided to release a comprehensive chart book in advance of the report. The chart book contains updates of the most important charts from the 2018 IGWT report, as well as a preview of charts that will appear in the 2019 report. A brief...
Read More »Swiss companies make contingency plans amid Brexit uncertainty
In 2018, the UK was Switzerland’s sixth-biggest export market (Keystone) As the Brexit saga continues, Swiss companies are preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. But optimism is waning among companies that are trying to minimise disruptions from any deal/no-deal scenarios. With the UK’s departure from the EU scheduled for March 29, British Prime Minister Theresa May on Wednesday asked the EU bloc to postpone...
Read More »Slump, Downturn, Recession; All Add Up To Sideways
According to Germany’s Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, or ZEW, the slump in the country’s economy has now reached its fourteenth month. The institute’s sentiment index has improved in the last two, but only slightly. As of the latest calculation released today, it stands at -3.6. That’s up from -24.7 back in October, though sentiment had likewise improved at one point last year, too. In July, the number...
Read More »The Real End of the Bond Market
These things are actually quite related, though I understand how it might not appear to be that way at first. As noted earlier today, the Fed (yet again) proves it has no idea how global money markets work. They can’t even get federal funds right after two technical adjustments to IOER (the joke). But as esoteric as all that may be, recent corporate statements leave much less doubt at least as to the primary effect....
Read More »FX Daily, March 21: Dovish Fed Sends Global Yields Lower, but Little Succor for Stocks
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.28% at 1.1293 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The dovishness of the Federal Reserve sent ripples through the capital markets. US equities reversed initial gains, but Asia Pacific equities edged higher, though Japanese markets were closed for a national holiday. European shares are...
Read More »Monetary policy assessment of 21 March 2019
Swiss National Bank leaves expansionary monetary policy unchanged The Swiss National Bank is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy, thereby stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB remains at –0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between –1.25% and –0.25%. The SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market as...
Read More »Top Swiss institutes launch joint cyber-security programme
Today a single hacker sitting in their apartment can bring a company or even a country to its knees. (Keystone / Sascha Steinbach) Switzerland’s federal technology institutes have launched a new Masters degree in cyber-security as part of an effort to play a leading role in studying the protection of computers and networks. The two Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology, Lausanne’s EPFL and Zurich’s ETH, already offer...
Read More »While the Nation Fragments Socially, the Financial Aristocracy Rules Unimpeded
America’s aristocracy is not formalized, and that’s the secret of its success. If there is one central irony in American history, it is this: the citizenry that broke free of the chains of British Monarchy, the citizenry that reckoned everyone was equal before the law, the citizenry that vowed never to be ruled by an aristocracy that controlled the government and finance as a means of self-enrichment, is now so...
Read More »FX Daily, March 20: Brexit Drama Continues but Fed Moves to Center Stage
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.14% at 1.1322 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: US stocks were not able to hold onto early gains yesterday, and this has helped set the stage for today’s heavier bias. Asia Pacific markets were narrowly mixed, with Japan and Korea eking out small gains while China and Taiwan slipped a...
Read More »Swiss Trade Balance February 2019: New Peak of Exports
We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade...
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