Tag Archives: Featured

There are two broad developments in speculative positioning in the Commitment of Traders report in the week ending February 9.  First, the market turbulence saw speculators reduce exposure.  Of the 16 gross positions we track, 11 were reducing positions by liquidating longs or covering shorts. Second, there were an unusual amount of significant gross position adjustments, by which we mean a change of 10k contracts of more in a gross position. There were six such adjustments, and they...

The outlook for the dollar in the week ahead is not about economic data or the FOMC and ECB minutes.  It is about the stability of the global capital markets. Many are looking for an event or official action that will stop the rout that is of historic proportions to start the year.   We too have been thinking about what it would take to stop the rot.    However, none of the frequently mentioned events, like an agreement to cut oil output, or for a coordinated policy response by the major...

In response to the global crisis, central banks have adopted unorthodox policies.  They expanded their balance sheets and broken the zero bound of interest rates.  Many investors have been critical of the central bank action on principle, but what has changed recently is that market developments have provided fodder for the ineffectiveness in practice. Asset purchases did not appear to bolster price pressures in the US, Europe or Japan.  Negative rates in Europe also appears to have had...

1) Indonesia announced it will allow full foreign ownership in many local industries in an effort to boost foreign investment 2) The Thai military government called a referendum on the new constitution on July 31 3) Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party dropped its backing for candidate Wnorowski to join the MPC 4) The IMF is starting to warn Ukraine 5) Press reports suggest some slippage in Brazil’s fiscal consolidation efforts 6) Mexico’s Finance Minister Videgaray acknowledged...

After another difficult Asian session that saw the Nikkei fell 4.8% (12.3% on the week), the capital markets against have stabilized in Europe.  Equity markets are mostly higher, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 up nearly 2% led by energy and financials.    Oil prices are up a bit more than $1 a barrel though it still leaves Brent off almost $3 on the week and WTI off $3.6.  This follows yesterday's close, which was the lowest since 2003.  Talk that the drop in price is increasing pressure on...

Scottsdale, AZ—Monetary Metals is pleased to announce that it has hired Bron Suchecki as Vice President, Operations. Bron will help the company develop new products and processes. “We are excited to be able to attract someone of Bron’s caliber. We are growing to serve many customer opportunities, and Bron is a key part of our team,” said Keith Weiner, the CEO. Bron leaves a management position at the Perth Mint, where he has become widely known over 20 years there. His areas of...

Scottsdale, AZ—Monetary Metals is pleased to announce that it has hired Bron Suchecki as Vice President, Operations. Bron will help the company develop new products and processes. “We are excited to be able to attract someone of Bron’s caliber. We are growing to serve many customer opportunities, and Bron is a key part of our team,” said Keith Weiner, the CEO. Bron leaves a management position at the Perth Mint, where he has become widely known over 20 years there. His areas of expertise...

The conundrum that everyone is wrestling with is the euro and yen's strength given their negative interest rates and prospect for even lower interest rates.   The divergence of monetary policy, even if the Fed is on hold for the rest of this year and next, should be dollar-positive.   We have tried making sense of what is happening by separating the developments into two buckets.  The first bucket, and what we think is the medium and long-term driver is the divergence of monetary...

The continued sell-off in global equities is the main driver of the capital markets.  It, along with the push lower in oil prices, are pushing core bond yields sharply lower.  The US 10-year yield is nearing 160 bp having begun the year above 225 bp.    The 10-year gilt yield is at a new record low of 130 bp.  It began the year near 195 bp.  The yield on the 10-year bund is also at new record lows today near 17 bp.  It had begun the year above 60 bp.  The only thing that saves the 10-year...

There are few industries that offer a picture glass window to see numerous macroeconomic forces as steel does.   Excess capacity, trade policy, and the yuan all intersect when looking at the steel industry.   Moreover, it also shed light on why the drop of energy and other commodity prices, such as iron ore, have not bolstered the steel industry, let alone the general economy, as many expected.   At the heart of the problem is that globally there is greater capacity to produce steel than...