Tag Archives: EUR

In quiet turnover, with China, Hong Kong, Singapore and London markets closed, the US dollar is trading with a heavier bias against all the major currencies.  Lower commodity prices, including oil and copper, appears to be taking a toll on some emerging market currencies, including the South African rand. Japanese markets were closed last Friday and will be closed the next three sessions.  The yen appreciated nearly 5% in the aftermath of the FOMC/BOJ meetings last week.  The greenback’s...

Speculators in the futures market made mostly small position adjustments in the sessions leading up to the FOMC and BOJ meetings.   During the Commitment of Traders reporting week ending April 26, the largest adjustment of speculative position in the currency futures was the 12.5 k build of gross long Australian dollar contracts. The accumulation lifted the gross position to 110.0k contracts, which surpasses the speculative gross long euro position (99.1k contracts) and the speculative...

April was a cruel month for the US dollar.  It fell against all the major currencies; even those whose central banks have negative yields.  The greenback also fell against nearly all the emerging market currencies, but the Philippine peso and the Polish zloty.   Through the first four months of the year, the dollar is lower against all the major currencies save sterling, which is off about 0.6%.  Following the reluctance of the BOJ to ease policy further last week, the yen has moved back...

There are two main forces in the foreign exchange market that are rippling through the capital markets.  The first is the continued weaker dollar tone.  The combination of what appears to be a stagnating US economy (0.5% annualized pace in Q1) and a market that does not believe the Federal Reserve will hike rates in June, and is in fact, judging from the Fed Fund futures strip, skeptical of a single hike this year.   The effect of this US dollar weakness help the commodities and emerging...

My name is noMy sign is noMy number is noYou need to let it goDebt relief is noGerman stimulus is noECB  easing is noYou need to let it go  German Finance Minister Schaeuble appears to have taken on a new role:  chief obstructionist.  Schaeuble seems to be reveling in the fact that due to Chancellor Merkel’s immigration stance, and perhaps also because of her accommodation of Turkey, her public support has fallen below his.   According to a recent ZDF poll, Merkel is now the fifth most...

The gains the US dollar registered in the second half are being pared, but it is sterling’s strength that stands out.  It is difficult to attribute it to Obama’s push against Brexit, but there does appear to have been a change in sentiment. Sterling is the best-performing currency not only today but for the past five sessions, rising 1.25% against the US dollar to its best level since mid-February.  The next target is $1.4600 and $1.4670, the high from early February.  Sterling is rising...

The US dollar starts what promises to be an eventful week giving back some the gains score in second half of last week against the euro and yen.    Equity markets are extending their pre-weekend losses.   Commodities are also trading with a heavier bias.  Markets in Australia, New Zealand, and Italy are closed for national holidays. The consolidative tone may not be very surprising give the data to be released in the coming days and the FOMC and BOJ meetings.  Investors will see the first...

(here is a draft of my monthly column for a Chinese paper) The US dollar has had a rough few months.  It has fallen against most major and emerging market currencies this year.  A critical issue for global investors and policymakers is whether the dollar’s uptrend is over, or is this just a respite.  Much is at stake with the answer. The variability of exchange rates could account for a third of the total return of a basket of international equities and twice as much for a basket of...

Equity markets are seeing this week's gains trimmed after the S&P 500 fell 0.5% yesterday, recording its biggest loss in two weeks.  Disappointing earnings in some tech leaders spurred profit-taking, The US 10-year Treasuries are consolidating the week's nine basis point increase in yields after nearing 1.90% yesterday.  Asian bonds yields tracked US Treasury yields higher while European bonds are narrowly mixed as they consolidate yesterday's increase.   The US dollar recovered from...

The ECB meeting is the session’s highlight.  In recognition of the risk that ECB President Draghi expresses displeasure with the premature tightening of financial conditions through the exchange rate channel is encouraged a modest bout of euro selling.  The single currency has drifted back toward the lows seen at the start of the week near $1.1275.   The euro has held above last week’s lows, which were set April 14 near $1.1235.  A retracement target of the euro’s gains since March 10 ECB...