Markit Economics released the flash results from several of its key surveys. Included is manufacturing in Japan (lower), as well as composites (manufacturing plus services) for the United States and Europe. Within the EU, Markit offers details for France and Germany. Given the nature of sentiment surveys, we tend to ignore these most months unless they suggest either pending changes or extremes. Beginning with the US,...
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PMI surveys surprised to the upside in March. The euro area composite PMI surged to 56.7, its highest level since April 2011.The average composite PMI is now consistent with a GDP growth rate of about 0.6% q-o-q in Q1, above our forecast. At the same time, hard data came in slightly weaker than expected, suggesting that business surveys might be overstating the pace of growth to some extent. As a result, we are keeping our growth forecast unchanged at 1.5% for 2017Both the euro area...
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Macroview September Flash PMIs were a mixed bag, but a closer look provides grounds for optimism. Markit’s euro area flash PMI indices for September were mixed, with France outperforming but business confidence declining in the German services sector as well as in the rest of the currency union. However, details of the PMI readings were generally better than the headlines. New orders rose in September and labour market dynamics remained supportive. Perhaps the best news from the Markit PMIs...
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The flash PMI for the euro area was better than expected in July, although some sub-indexes pointed ahead to a deceleration in the rate of expansion. PMI data indicate a contraction of activity in the UK. Today’s flash PMI surveys for the euro area were more resilient than expected. The euro area composite PMI index eased only marginally in July, from 53.1 to 52.9, according to Markit’s flash estimates. However, some forward-looking indicators point to weaker developments ahead. In the...
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