(About to set off on another business trip. I will spend the next two weeks in Asia. The updates will be sporadic. Thanks for your patience.) Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.01% to 1.1706 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US Administration has softened its initial hardline position of no exemptions for the new...
Read More »FX Daily, February 09: Equity Sell-Off Extends to Asia, but More Muted in Europe
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.38% to 1.1502 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The 100-point slide in the S&P 500 and the 1000-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrials yesterday spurred more bloodletting in Asia. The 1.8% drop in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (for a 6.7% loss for the week) may conceal the magnitude...
Read More »FX Daily, January 10: Yen Short Squeeze Extended
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.31% to 1.1725 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Sparked by fears that the BOJ took a step toward the monetary exit by reducing the amount of long-term bonds it is buying, there is an apparent scramble to cover previously sold yen positions. The dollar finished last week near JPY113.00....
Read More »Global Inflation Continues To Underwhelm
Chinese producer prices accelerated in September 2017, while consumer price increases slowed. The National Bureau of Statistics reported this weekend that China’s PPI was up 6.9% year-over-year, a quicker pace than the 6.3% estimated for August and a 5.5% rate in July. Earlier in the year producer prices were driven mostly by 2016’s oil rebound, along with those in the rest of the global economy, but in recent months...
Read More »NAFTA Worries Take Toll, Yellen’s Best Guess Supports Greenback
Summary: Risk that NAFTA collapses weighs on CAD and MXN. Yen is slightly firmer despite US yields edging higher and weekend polls suggesting LDP could nearly secure a 2/3 majority of its own. The sterling is consolidating after sharp moves at the end of last week. (Greetings from San Francisco, where I will be speaking at a CFA seminar on currencies tomorrow. The rebuilding from destruction of the of...
Read More »FX Daily, August 09: North Korea lets EUR/CHF Collapse
Swiss Franc The euro has depreciated by 1.16% to 1.1316CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is decidedly mixed. The Swiss franc, not the yen is the strongest of the major currencies. It is up nearly 1.1%. If sustained, it could be the biggest single day dollar loss against the franc this year, edging out more than...
Read More »Competing CPI,PPI, Industrial Production and Retail Sales: No Luck China, Either
Former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff warned today on CNBC that he was concerned about China. Specifically, he worried that country might “export a recession” to the rest of Asia if not the rest of the world. I’m not sure if he has been paying attention or not, but the Chinese economy since 2012 has been doing just that to varying degrees often just shy of that level. If there’s a country in the world which is really...
Read More »FX Daily, June 09: Sterling Shocked, Dollar Broadly Firmer
Swiss Franc The euro is up by 0.02% to 1.0851 CHF. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, June 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates What looked like a savvy move in late April has turned into a nightmare. Collectively, voters have denied the governing Conservative party a parliamentary majority. The uncertainty today does not lie yesterday with the known unknown, but with the shape of the next...
Read More »FX Daily, May 10: Markets Adjust to North Korean Threat, Fifth Fall in US Oil Inventories and Trump Drama
Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, May 10(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Investors absorbed a few developments that might have been disruptive for the markets with little fanfare. North Korea’s ambassador to the UK warned that his country would go ahead with its sixth nuclear test, as South Korea elected a new president who wants to reduce tensions on the peninsula. The Dollar...
Read More »What Was Chinese Trade in March?
As with all statistics, there are discrepancies that from time to time may obscure the meaning or validity of the particular estimate in question. For the vast majority of the time, any such uncertainties amount to very little. Overall, harmony among the major accounts reduces the signal noise from any one featuring a significant inconsistency. There are, of course, various economic areas where estimates are going to...
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