Overview: The one-two punch of the disappointing US job opening report and the downbeat Beige Book weighs on the US dollar, which is softer against all the G10 currencies. The Canadian dollar is a notable exception. Prime Minister Trudeau's minority Liberal Party lost key support and the Bank of Canada affirmed expectations for more rate cuts. Japan's wage growth was stronger than expected, underscoring the divergence of policy and the dollar was sold to almost...
Read More »Dollar Consolidates as Stocks Melt
Overview: The sharp losses in global equities are dominating today's market developments. Yesterday's 2.1% loss of the S&P 500 and 3.25% drop in the Nasdaq were the largest since carry-trade unwind climaxed on August 5. They have fallen more today and are poised to gap lower at the opening. Asia Pacific shares tumbled, led by Taiwan's 4.5% tumble and the Nikkei's 4.25% loss. It delivered Indian stocks its first loss in nearly three weeks. Europe's Stoxx 600 is...
Read More »Calmer Markets Ahead of the Weekend
Overview: The dollar is paring yesterday's advance that was spurred by the rise in US rates following the preliminary PMI, which reached its best level in two years. The survey also picked up higher prices. The dollar is in narrow trading ranges but softer against nearly all the G10 currencies today. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen are laggards. Despite a large disappointing miss on UK retail sales, sterling has steadied after falling yesterday for the first time...
Read More »The Dollar and Oil Steady After Yesterday’s Advance
Overview: Bonds and stocks are mostly heavier today and the dollar has turned mixed. Oil prices are consolidating after soaring to new highs since late last year on the longer than expected extension of Saudi Arabia's extra cut of one million barrels a day. Since July, it has been extending it by one month at a time. Yesterday, it extended it through Q4. Russia, who had previously indicated intentions on reducing its exports by 500k barrels, announced it was...
Read More »US Dollar Punches Higher
Overview: Disappointing data in Asia and Europe has sent the greenback broadly higher. The strong gains posted before the weekend were mostly consolidated yesterday when the US and Canadian markets were on holiday. The rally resumed today. The Antipodeans and Scandis have been hit the hardest (-0.7% to -1.25%) but all the G10 currencies are down. The Swiss franc and yen are off the least (-0.35%-0.45%), and the euro and sterling have taken out their recent lows....
Read More »The Greenback Continues to Struggle
Overview: There is a nervousness that hangs over the capital markets. Although US banks shares recovered at the end of last week, many continue to see the sector’s challenges as the harbinger of a dramatic reversal in the Fed’s stance. America’s debt ceiling looms large and could be a few weeks away. China led Asia Pacific bourses higher, and, ironically, its bank shares extended their rally. Japan, returning from last week’s holiday was notable exception. Relative...
Read More »Bank of England Steps in to Buy Inflation-Linked Bonds for the First Time
Overview: The dollar continues to ride high. It reached its highest level against the yen since the recent intervention. The Canadian dollar has fallen to its lowest level in two-and-a-half years and the New Zealand dollar is approaching the 2020 extreme. The greenback is firmer against all the major currencies but the Swiss franc, and against nearly all the emerging market currencies today. Equities have been sold. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan re-opened after...
Read More »Weekly Market Pulse: The Real Reason The Fed Should Pause
The Federal Reserve has been on a mission lately to make sure everyone knows they are serious about killing the inflation they created. Over the last two weeks, Federal Reserve officials delivered 37 speeches, all of the speakers competing to see who could be the most hawkish. Interest rates are going up they said, no matter how much it hurts, no matter how many people have to be put on the unemployment line, because that’s the only way to kill this inflation, to...
Read More »The Yen and Yuan Continue to Weaken
Overview: While the US dollar appears to be consolidating its recent gains, the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan remain under pressure. Officials seem more concerned about the pace of the move than the level it has reached. New and large fiscal initiatives that the new UK government has floated has failed to change sentiment toward sterling, which is the second weakest major currency today after the Japanese yen. The yen’s weakness did not prevent new losses in Japanese...
Read More »Euro Parity Holds ahead of US CPI
Overview: The US dollar is consolidating with a slight downside bias ahead of the June CPI report. The euro held above $1.00 but is still pinned in the trough. The rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand failed to have much impact. On the other hand, the JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is lower for the fourth consecutive session. Most of the large markets in the Asia Pacific region rose, led by a 2.7% rally in Taiwan after the government promised to...
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