EUR/CHF stronger in Brexit week The EUR/CHF finished the week after Brexit with slight improvement of 0.18% (see the FX performance table below). The scare mongering by the Swiss media was misplaced. The euro even recovered from a dip after BoE governor Carney’s comments on Thursday. We do not see strong SNB interventions at this elevated price level. We judged that the interventions happened below 1.08. Click to...
Read More »Visualizing “The 5000 Year Long Run” In 18 Stunning Charts
In the long run, as someone once said, we are all dead, but in the meantime, as BofAML’s Michael Hartnett provides a stunning tour de force of the last 5000 years illustrates long-run trends in the return, volatility, valuation & ownership of financial assets, interest rates & bond yields, economic growth, inflation & debt… The Longest Pictures reveals the astonishing history investors are living through...
Read More »Futures Flat, Gold Rises On Weaker Dollar As Traders Focus On OPEC, Payrolls
After yesterday's US and UK market holidays which resulted in a session of unchanged global stocks, US futures are largely where they left off Friday, up fractionally, and just under 2,100. Bonds fell as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates amid signs inflation is picking up. Oil headed for its longest run of monthly gains in five years, while stocks declined in Europe. Treasuries retreated in the first full day of trading since Yellen said late Friday that the improving...
Read More »Global Stocks Slide, S&P Set To Open Red For The Year As Hawkish Fed Ignites “Risk Off”
After yesterday's algo-driven mad dash to close the S&P green both for the day and for the year following Fed minutes that came in shocking hawkish, the selling has continued overnight, led by the commodity complex as rate hike fears have pushed oil back down some 2% from yesterday's 7 month highs, which in turn has dragged global stocks lower to a six-week low, while pushing bond yields higher across developed nations as the market suddenly reprices the probability of a June/July rate...
Read More »State Of Fear – Corruption In High Places
Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man.com, Mr. X and his Mysterious Benefactors As the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) reports, a money-laundering alarm was triggered at AmBank in Malaysia, a bank part-owned by one of Australia’s “big four” banks, ANZ. What had triggered the alarm? Money had poured into the personal account of one of the bank’s customers, a certain Mr. X, in truly staggering amounts. A recent photograph of Mr. X. Hundreds of millions of dollars were...
Read More »Time to Pick a Top in the Australian Dollar?
The yen's surge in recent days has captured the attention of investors and policymakers alike. It is indeed unsettling and seems to run counter to the economic logic negative interest rates, which the BOJ surprised the market with at the end of January. Yet, if one thinks the market has gotten ahead of itself, perhaps picking a top in the yen may not be prudent. Entry levels are important but so is the stop. It is not clear where one should put a stop if trying to pick a bottom to...
Read More »Japan Stocks Plunge; Europe, U.S. Futures, Oil Lower Ahead Of Payrolls
For Japan, the post "Shanghai Summit" world is turning ugly, fast, because as a result of the sliding dollar, a key demand of China which has been delighted by the recent dovish words and actions of Janet Yellen, both Japan's and Europe's stock markets have been sacrificed at the whims of their suddenly soaring currencies. Which is why when Japanese stocks tumbled the most in 7 weeks, sinking 3.5%, to a one month low of 16,164 (after the Yen continued strengthening and the Tankan confidence...
Read More »The Forex Rigging Irony
While Forex banks, traders, and other institutions are being blamed for market rigging, the Swiss National Bank can publish reports about its own market rigging, but instead of being a scandal, it's economic data. That's because the vast majority don't understand how the Forex markets work. It's not insulting - it's a fact. Currently there are hundreds of pending litigation cases against a plethora of Forex banks, traders, and other institutions - but none against a central bank. Of...
Read More »The SNB and the Forex Rigging Irony
While Forex banks, traders, and other institutions are being blamed for market rigging, the Swiss National Bank can publish reports about its own market rigging, but instead of being a scandal, it’s economic data. That’s because the vast majority don’t understand how the Forex markets work. It’s not insulting – it’s a fact. Currently there are hundreds of pending litigation cases against a plethora of Forex banks, traders, and other institutions – but none against a central bank....
Read More »U.S. Futures Slide, Crude Under $39 As Dollar Rallies For Fifth Day
Following yesterday's dollar spike which topped the longest rally in the greenback in one month, the prevailing trade overnight has been more of the same, and in the last session of this holiday shortened week we have seen the USD rise for the fifth consecutive day on concerns the suddenly hawkish Fed (at least as long as the S&P is above 2000) may hike sooner than expected, which in turn has pressured WTI below $39 earlier in the session, and leading to weakness across virtually all...
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