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Cryptos/Switzerland: Mountain Pass

Switzerland is ploughing ahead with its plans to become a global crypto leader. Facebook takes on global finance. But its proposed digital currency Libra frightens central banks and regulators. Below the radar, Switzerland launches its own skirmish. Two local crypto-finance pioneers this week became the first to win banking licences. Previously famous for its secretive private banks, the affluent Alpine state is becoming a wheeling and dealing hub for electronic...

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Swiss Banks Slow on the Digital Uptake

Swiss bank customers do not easily change their habits. Swiss banks are turning their attention to providing more digital services for customers, but their progress has been slow. This may have something to do with new technology upstarts struggling to gain significant traction thus far in Switzerland, according to a new study. Once financial technology (fintech) innovation properly takes off in the over-crowded banking sector, the competition may well cause some...

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Emerging Markets: FX Model for Q3 2019

The broad-based dollar rally remains intact despite the market’s overly dovish take on the Fed We still believe markets are vastly overestimating the Fed’s capacity to ease in 2019 and 2020 What’s clear is that the liquidity story is not enough to sustain EM MSCI EM FX is on track to test the September 2018 low near 1575 and then the April 2017 low near 1568 Our 1-rated (strongest fundamentals) grouping for Q3 2019 consists of TWD, PHP, CNY, THB, and KRW Our...

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Definitely A Downturn, But What’s Its Rate of Change?

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (NAI) fell to -0.36 in July. That’s down from a +0.10 in June. By itself, the change from positive to negative tells us very little, as does the absolute level below zero. What’s interesting to note about this one measure is the average but more so its rate of change. The index itself is a product of econometric research. Economists had been searching for an alternative to the unemployment rate in order to increase the...

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Bitcoin-Friendly Banks

Over its 10 years of existence, Bitcoin adoption has been just like its price—up and down. At this point in time, it’s safe to say that the adoption of our favourite cryptocurrency has never been higher. Since adoption is so high, it has never been easier to buy bitcoin (with hundreds of payment methods available on peer-to-peer marketplaces). Concrete evidence of bitcoin adoption: banks While banks used to be thought of as bitcoin’s main antagonist, they have become...

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FX Daily, August 27: Realism Fights Back After Hope Dominated Yesterday

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.44% to 1.0912 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Hope triumphed over realism yesterday, and realism is fighting back toward. Asia Pacific markets, however, traded on the echo from the recovery in North America on Monday. The MSCI Asia Pacific recouped part of yesterday’s drop, led by Chinese markets. Hong Kong was the main...

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THE FED’S CAPITULATION: WHAT IT MEANS FOR GOLD INVESTORS

“Perhaps they think that they will exercise power for the generall good, but that is what all those with power have believed. Power is evil in itself, regardless of who exercises it.” – Ludwig von Mises, Nation, State, and Economy After the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy U-turn earlier this year and the central bank’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in a decade, mainstream investors and analysts believe that holding rates lower and for...

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Dollar Firm as Markets Calm

- Click to enlarge Market sentiment has improved after President Trump said China has asked to restart trade talks PBOC fixed the yuan basically flat and firmer than what models suggested The G-7 summit wraps up today with little to show for it We believe the Chicago Fed National Activity Index remains the best indicator to gauge US recession risks Germany July IFO business climate came in weaker than expected The lira experienced a flash crash against the yen...

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Switzerland’s First Crypto Banks Receive Licences

The world of crypto assets is forecast to explode in the coming years, moving on a long way from the cryptocurrency bitcoin. The Swiss financial regulator has awarded banking and securities dealer licences to two new “crypto banks”. SEBA and Sygnum have been cleared to operate in the new world of tokenised digital securities, a major milestone for the fledging industry. At the same time, the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) issued rules on how to...

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