SNB & CHF

What changed? For over a month, the Treasury market had the Fed and its rate hiking figured out. Rising recession risks had been confirmed by almost every piece of incoming data, including, importantly, labor data. It is the jobs market where much of the official “inflation” jawboning is centered, all that Phillips Curve stuff. So, whatever might seriously undermine Phillips would put the end to the rate hikes in sight. Short-term Treasuries therefore ignored...

© Ys7485 | Dreamstime.com On 10 June 2022, Switzerland’s government adopted the latest set of EU sanctions against Russia and Belarus, including an embargo on crude oil and certain refined petroleum imports from Russia. The sanctions are the sixth package and were adopted by the EU on 3 June 2022. An embargo on oil imports from Russia by sea will be introduced progressively from early December 2022, and a ban on all Russian oil imports will then start two months...

Almost half of respondents backed a levy of CHF30 for short-haul flights and CHF120 for long-haul flights Keystone / Salvatore Di Nolfi Almost three-quarters (72%) of respondents to a Swiss survey are in favour of increasing the price of airline tickets for climate reasons. In the event of an introduction, 42% of respondents back a levy of CHF30 ($30.40) for short-haul flights and CHF120 for long-haul flights; 50% agreed with higher charges. Younger people were more...

Fears of a growing totalitarian tendency in the US have swelled during 2020–22. But how close are we really to a totalitarian state? How have such regimes come about historically and what are the warning signs? This article will answer these questions by examining totalitarian regimes in the eighteenth and twentieth centuries and the pattern by which they came to power. Stage 1: Discontent and Rumblings Every new order rises on the ruins of the old. Those who would...

The firmer than expected US CPI did not change expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike the Fed funds target by 50 bp on June 15.  What it did was boost the chances that the 50 bp steps will continue through at least November. The market also sees a greater chances of a 75 bp move.The reaction to the ECB's indication that it could raise rates by 50 bp in September failed to impress the foreign exchange market. By the end of Q3, the ECB may have hiked by 75 bp...

Booking.com says it levies a 12% fee on reservations made over its online platform for a variety of services including promotion. © Keystone/Gaetan Bally Parliament has approved restrictions on online reservation platforms to protect the Swiss hotel sector. Senators on Wednesday came out in favour of a legal reform to fight unfair competition. In line with the House of Representatives, the Senate approved proposals to allow hotel websites to undercut prices and other...

The occurrence of stagflation is associated with a situation of general strengthening in the momentum of prices while at the same time the pace of economic activity is declining. A famous stagflation episode occurred during the 1974û75 period, as year-on-year industrial production fell by nearly 13 percent in March 1975 while the yearly growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped to around 12 percent. Likewise, a large fall in economic activity and...

It’s campaign season, and that means non-stop media coverage of candidate polls, quips, gaffes, tweets, emails, controversies, lies, and scandals. It all makes for a good soap opera. Unfortunately, it’s almost all irrelevant in the big picture. The media prefer to focus on the sideshow rather than the 800-pound gorilla in the room: the looming debt crisis. Nothing that comes out of a pundit’s mouth or a Hillary Clinton email will close the $210 trillion long-term...

The BLS’s most recent labor market data is, well, troubling. Even the preferred if artificially-smooth Establishment Survey indicates that something has changed since around March. A slowdown at least, leaving more questions than answers (from President Phillips). That as much because of the other employment figures, the Household Survey. April and May, in particular, not just a slowdown but a drop in overall employee count. As I pointed out last Friday, a 2-month...

Three G7 central banks meet in the coming days, and they dominate the macro stage. The Federal Reserve's meeting concludes on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan on Friday. The market recognizes a strong consensus has emerged at the FOMC for 50 bp hikes in June, but the unexpectedly strong CPI report before the weekend saw the market price in about a 50% chance of a 75 bp hike in July. Some Fed officials have been understandably...