SNB & CHF

What’s your outlook for this year? I’ve heard that question repeatedly over the last month and if you’re reading this hoping I’ll let you have a peak at my crystal ball, you’re going to be disappointed. Because I don’t have a crystal ball and neither, I hasten to add, does anyone else in this business. So, no, I don’t know what’s going to happen this year. I do know what the consensus view is, what the majority expects to happen, and that may be more useful. Because...

The 'soft landing' is on the table at NYSE. December payroll data kept the hope alive. But is it really? Growing weight of evidence - not to mention totally different interpretation of same across many other markets - strongly implies it isn't. We discuss how or maybe when share prices realize the difference. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com...

We have been torn between our conviction that the dollar’s cyclical rally ended last September-October, and the near-term momentum indicators that warned that the dollar’s pullback was overdone. Aside from the Japanese yen, a consolidative phase dominated December, but the momentum indicators still seemed to suggest upside potential dollar. A proper correction appeared to have begun in the days leading up to the US jobs report. While we correctly anticipated a “buy...

Visitors travelling to the mountain town of Davos for this month’s World Economic Forum (WEF) could face pricey rates, according to Swiss media. The Schweiz am Wochenende newspaper writes on Saturday that a three-bed studio in the canton Graubünden town costs CHF2,600 ($2,800) per night during the WEF, runs from January 16-20. With service charges and cleaning, this comes to CHF15,000 for the five nights of the event, the paper writes. In February, the same...

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The most important economic report in the week ahead is the US December Consumer Price Index on January 12. To be sure, the Federal Reserve targets an alternative measure, the deflator of personal consumption expenditures. However, in this cycle, when households, businesses, investors, and policymakers are particularly sensitive to inflation, CPI, which is reported a couple of weeks before the PCE deflator, has stolen the thunder. In explaining the surprise...

A former top lobbyist for Uber says the firm wilfully ignored regulations when it began operating in Switzerland in 2013. Uber says it has since updated its working model. By choosing to act first and apologise later in implementing its gig-economy model, Uber “massively undermined” democracy in many countries, including Switzerland, former lobbyist Mark MacGann told Tamedia newspapers on Saturday. MacGann was Uber’s chief lobbyist in Europe between 2014 and 2016...

Major plunges in major accounts. Curve inversions and the shifts in them had warned that the economy began to really stumble around June or July, then took a turn for the even worse October then November. Recent data confirms this is what has actually happened. Including payrolls, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net...

Overview: The US dollar extended yesterday's gains as the market adjusts positions ahead of the jobs data. Yesterday and today's price action looks to have strengthened the near-term technical outlook for the greenback. However, the intraday momentum indicators are stretched. This warns of the risk of a counter-intuitive move after the data, barring a significant surprise. Meanwhile, one of the Fed's leading hawkish voices, St. Louis Fed President Bullard seemed to...

Today we ask, what is wealth? As we start a new year many will be looking at their portfolios and wondering what 2023 will have in store for them. Similar to 2022, we suspect there will be a lot of unknowns. As with anything unforeseen, it’s a good idea to have some insurance. This is why there were record levels of gold buying last year, and we expect the same in the coming months; because people want to protect their wealth with the insurance that gold offers....