SNB & CHF

Dear Investors! Because the stock market is currently strongly correlated to the energy sector, Friday’s rally responded in kind on the news of a surge of 12.3% in the NYMEX WTI sweet crude market after a report had suggested that OPEC may finally agree to cut its production to reduce the world glut. The news instantly oiled the S&P 500’s rise of 1.95%. However despite the strong daily gain, oil prices still ended the week down in spite of being the best one-day gain since February...

Dear Investors! Because the stock market is currently strongly correlated to the energy sector, Friday’s rally responded in kind on the news of a surge of 12.3% in the NYMEX WTI sweet crude market after a report had suggested that OPEC may finally agree to cut its production to reduce the world glut. The news instantly oiled the S&P 500’s rise of 1.95%. However despite the strong daily gain, oil prices still ended the week down in spite of being the best one-day gain since February...

Headlines Second week of February: Speculative position: As expected rise to 7268 x 125k contracts long USD, short CHF.Sight Deposits: SNB intervenes for 0.9 bln. CHF during the bad market conditions; safe haven inflows were directed towards CHF or Swiss did not cover their trade surplus with the purchase of foreign assets.FX: EUR/CHF fell under 1.10 and EUR/USD over 1.12. Background Sight deposits are currently the by far most important means of financing for SNB currency purchases, for...

Headlines Second week of February: Speculative position: As expected rise to 7268 x 125k contracts long USD, short CHF.Sight Deposits: SNB intervenes for 0.9 bln. CHF during the bad market conditions; safe haven inflows were directed towards CHF or Swiss did not cover their trade surplus with the purchase of foreign assets.FX: EUR/CHF fell under 1.10 and EUR/USD over 1.12. Background Sight deposits are currently the by far most important means of financing for SNB currency purchases, for...

Headlines Second week of February: Speculative position: As expected rise to 7268 x 125k contracts long USD, short CHF.Sight Deposits: SNB intervenes for 0.9 bln. CHF during the bad market conditions; safe haven inflows were directed towards CHF or Swiss did not cover their trade surplus with the purchase of foreign assets.FX: EUR/CHF fell under 1.10 and EUR/USD over 1.12. Background Sight deposits are currently the by far most important means of financing for SNB currency purchases, for...

Again, we had another big drop in the dollar this week. No, we don’t mean against the dollar derivatives known as the euro, pound, etc. We mean by the only standard capable of measuring it: gold. The dollar fell 1.4 milligrams, to 25.1mg gold. Or, if you prefer, 0.1 grams of silver. For some reason, it’s obvious when the price of gold in Zimbabwe goes up from Z$118,000,000 to Z$123,700,000 that Zimbabweans are not getting rich. But when the price of gold rises from US $1,118 to $1,237, as...

Again, we had another big drop in the dollar this week. No, we don’t mean against the dollar derivatives known as the euro, pound, etc. We mean by the only standard capable of measuring it: gold. The dollar fell 1.4 milligrams, to 25.1mg gold. Or, if you prefer, 0.1 grams of silver. For some reason, it’s obvious when the price of gold in Zimbabwe goes up from Z$118,000,000 to Z$123,700,000 that Zimbabweans are not getting rich. But when the price of gold rises from US $1,118 to $1,237, as...

Investors have become unhinged. The increased volatility and dramatic market moves challenge even the most robust investment strategies. This sets off a chain reaction of money and risk management that further amplifies the price action, like an echo chamber. Then a cottage industry of reporters, analysts and bloggers offer explanations often without distinguishing the initial sound from the echo. At the same time, that which we have come to think of as terra firma has turned into...

Investors have become unhinged. The increased volatility and dramatic market moves challenge even the most robust investment strategies. This sets off a chain reaction of money and risk management that further amplifies the price action, like an echo chamber. Then a cottage industry of reporters, analysts and bloggers offer explanations often without distinguishing the initial sound from the echo. At the same time, that which we have come to think of as terra firma has turned into...

There are two broad developments in speculative positioning in the Commitment of Traders report in the week ending February 9.  First, the market turbulence saw speculators reduce exposure.  Of the 16 gross positions we track, 11 were reducing positions by liquidating longs or covering shorts. Second, there were an unusual amount of significant gross position adjustments, by which we mean a change of 10k contracts of more in a gross position. There were six such adjustments, and they...