SNB & CHF

During this holiday period, participation is light and order-driven activity can push prices more than usual.  Investors should not let the noise and gyrations obscure the bigger picture.   We continue to place the divergence of monetary policy at the center of our narrative.     Barring a significant negative surprise from the labor market, we expect the Fed to hike rates again, with March as the most likely timeframe.  We are cognizant that the recent US data has disappointed, and that...

Australia, New Zealand, UK markets closed for Boxing Day.   After rallying last week, oil prices are off 2%, base and precious metals lower. European core and peripheral bond markets are highs, with yields slipping mostly 2-3 bp. No end to the political uncertainty in Spain, but Spanish 10-year bonds are matching regional performance.  Equities have a heavier bias.  Asian shares were mixed.  The Nikkei rose 0.6% while the Shanghai Composite fell 2.6%.  Reports suggest that the...

The prices of the metals rose a bit this quiet, holiday week. Merry Christmas! Speaking of Christmas, Keith’s brother who is an amateur woodworker of growing skill, gave him this present on Friday. Regular readers may recognize the design as our logo. Each “M” is made of a single piece of wood. They are stained or painted in the correct colors. The minute hand is silver and the hour hand is gold (paint, alas!) It now occupies a prominent place in the office. It is worth taking this time...

The US dollar traded heavily in the holiday-shortened week.  It slipped against all the major currencies.  The recovery in commodity prices, the new stimulus Chinese officials suggested, and the relatively high yields conspired to help lift the dollar-bloc currencies.  Them and the Swedish krona fared best.  Sterling, the Swiss franc, and Japanese yen managed to eke out small gains.   The economic calendar is light in the week ahead, and participation will be as well.  Nevertheless, it...

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Every week, I strive to shed light on one issue, idea, or problem with the dollar and its central planner, the Fed. I develop concepts, make assertions, show my logic, and provide evidence. In short, I appeal to reason. It’s often abstract and always hard work to read. For the Christmas holiday, I thought I would appeal to emotion with some classic music and fun satire.[embedded content]

The French-speaking city of Sion in canton Valais is undergoing a transportation revolution – it is to be the first place in Switzerland with driverless buses. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) Two autonomous buses are set to do the rounds, firstly without passengers in a closed off area. Next spring, passengers will also be able to hop onboard. For a two-year trial period, the buses carrying up to nine passengers each will cover tourist routes in Sion's Old Town. The shuttle system is the brainchild of...

The thinness of the order-driven capital markets is making price action that seems more inexplicable than usual.  The US dollar is mixed. It has recouped all the ground it lows against the euro yesterday, as the single currency briefly dipped below $1.09 in the North American morning.  It was unable to build on yesterday's gains that had carried it up to almost $1.0950.   Despite some fraying, the $1.08-$1.10 trading range still seems intact.   Sterling which had been sold to eight-month...

Many Swiss ski resorts are dealing with a lack of snow because of relatively warm winter temperatures, and only those with artificial snow are managing to open ski slopes as usual. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) Some of the higher resorts in the south-western canton of Valais are open for ski business. St Moritz in eastern Switzerland, with only 15cm of snow on its higher pistes, is issuing visitors with a list of 400 things to do if it does not snow, including skating and taking in a little local...

1.  China's Central Economic Work Conference is responsible for setting the annual GDP target. Although it was not formally announced, President Xi previously indicated that the goal for the economy to expand by around 6.5% a year through 2020.  More telling than the GDP target is the intentions expressed in the new slogan:  flexible monetary policy, forceful fiscal policy.  For Chinese officials, these are not ends in themselves but means to another end.  In this case, the goal is to...