SNB & CHF

Swiss Franc For us the developments in the trade balance express if a currency is overvalued or not (more details here). The Swiss trade surplus is constant or rather rising, hence the Swiss Franc is correctly valued or rather undervalued.And – as we see below – the franc appreciated. Switzerland Trade Balance(see more posts on Switzerland Trade Balance, )Switzerland Trade Balance – click to enlarge. FX Rates...

The priesthood’s insane obsession with forcing people to spend their savings by punishing savers with ZIRP/NIRP has failed spectacularly for a simple reason: it completely misunderstands human psychology. Let’s start with a simple chart of the Fed Funds Rate, which the Federal Reserve has pinned near zero for years. This Zero Rate Interest Policy (ZIRP) is the god the PhD economists in the Fed and other central banks...

Submitted by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com, We warn regularly of the risk involved in storing wealth in banks. They’ve made the removal of your deposits increasingly difficult in addition to colluding with governments to allow them to legally freeze or confiscate your money. To add insult to injury, they’re creating reporting requirements with regard to the contents of  safe deposit boxes and restricting what...

See the introduction and the video for the terms gold basis, co-basis, backwardation and contango. Interest Rate Convulsions The prices of both metals were down again this week. We would guess that it has something to do with the fact that everyone knows: higher rates are coming to the dollar. The yield on the 10-year Treasury closed the previous week at 1.762% and this week at 1.701%. It may not look like much, but...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]The US dollar, which finished last week on a firm note, is under pressure to start the new week that features Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve meetings. The slighter stronger August CPI reading helped lift the greenback ahead of the weekend, but investors continue to see a low probability of a Fed hike this week.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Laws of politics have been turned upside down. The Intellectuals Yet Idiots can make no sense of it. The underdog who ‘tell it how it is’ appeal to people while established reasoning does not.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Median household income was higher in 2015 than in 2008, but still below 1999 peak in real terms. The bottom fifth of households by income have just recouped what was lost. Income growth did best under (Bill) Clinton and Reagan, including for top 5%. Origin of strong dollar policy means it will not be used as a trade weapon and it hasn't since Bentsen.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]EM ended the week on a soft note. Volatility is likely to remain high as markets are jittery and choppy ahead of the BOJ/FOMC meetings on Thursday. Dollar gains were broad-based last week, but EM certainly underperformed. China markets will reopen after a two-day holiday, but good news out of the mainland is doing little to help EM.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]OUZILLY, France – We’re going back to basics here at the Diary. We’re getting everyone on the same page… learning together… connecting the dots… trying to figure out what is going on. We made a breakthrough when we identified the source of so many of today’s bizarre and grotesque trends. It’s the money – the new post-1971 dollar. This new dollar is green. You can buy things with it.

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Shifting intermarket relationships pose challenge for investors. The market is convinced the Fed will not raise rates. Greater uncertainty surrounds the BOJ; there seems less willingness to shock and awe.