SNB & CHF

One of the first to use the word “euro glut” was Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos. His idea of the euro glut is that European banks and investors drive the euro down despite the massive European current account surplus and the high European household savings rates of 12% compared to 4% in the US. Saravelos argues that ECB easing will lead to some of the “largest capital outflows in the history of financial markets”. This would counter the “European savings glut” created by savings and...

We call this chapter the holy grail of long-term currency movements because it is able to explain things like the sudden depreciation of the yen between October 2012 and April 2013 or the strengthening of the Chinese Yuan. The former chief editor of “The Economist” Geoffrey Crowther published a great work on the development of balance of payments and current accounts over the long-term. It divides development into six phases, which are analogous to  Shakespeare’s seven phases of life. via...

Overview: Sight deposits are currently the by far most important means of financing for SNB currency purchases, for interventions. Sight deposits are assets for commercial banks, the Swiss confederation and other counterparties that deposit money at the SNB, but for the SNB they are liabilities, debt.Sight deposits are always denominated in CHF. The SNB finances itself with Swiss Francs. With a rising CHF the debt relative to assets gets bigger, because the assets lose their value. As...

Video Content Abstract at: LINK http://www.gordontlong.com/Macro_Analytics.htm#Smith-06-20-15

We show the monthly development of government bond yields over years, thanks to a table from the ECB. Click to expand, source ECB Disinflation in the Euro zone depresses bond yields everywhere, 2014 versus 2013 June 2014: By July 2013, government bond yields of European safe-havens have risen compared the rates of July 2012, but the ones of crisis countries decreased: Click to expand, source ECB The following was the data as of July 18th 2012, at the height of negative interest rates...

GoldSeek Radio's Chris Waltzek talks to Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html http://www.goldseek.com/ http://radio.goldseek.com/

George Dorgan shows that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measurement in the local currency. Effectively, Swiss real GDP rose by 15% in Euro terms, but fell slightly in CHF. He also emphasizes that Switzerland needs a big rebalancing of its economy, away from exports towards consumption. The Swiss National Bank was right to remove the euro peg. The move towards consumption is only possible when the Swiss franc is stronger because consumers will profit on...

I have to admit that I derive some pleasure in taking on hoary old myths. For example, some economists assert that the interest rate you see on the Treasury bond is not real. You see, it’s only nominal. To calculate the real rate, they say you must adjust the nominal rate by inflation. Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest – Inflation It seems to make sense. Suppose you have enough cash to feed your family for 2,000 days. Then the general price level increases by 15%. You still have the...

We show the two phases or two innings or phases of Swiss franc appreciation: The “risk aversion game” and the “inflation game”. With the weakening of emerging markets and the strengthening of the United States in 2013/2014, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had won the first battle in the war against financial market, the “risk aversion game“, the first innings in a two-part match. Risk aversion is lower because the United States recovered thanks to lower oil prices.The “inflation game”...

Get Free Resources from Eazl: http://bit.ly/eazlresources Save $5 on some of Eazl's most popular courses ➸ Career Hacking: Resume, LinkedIn®, Interviewing + More - http://bit.ly/chsave5youtube ➸ Growth Hacking with Digital Marketing - http://bit.ly/save5ghyoutube ➸ Entrepreneurship: The 8 Step Business Launch® Formula - http://bit.ly/8sblsave5yt Charles Hugh Smith is an economist, author, and blogger with a readership of over 20mm worldwide. In this interview excerpt, he explains how it...