SNB & CHF

Just a month ago, Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam and Deutsche Bank CEO John Cryan risked, as one hedge fund manager put it, becoming the dead men walking of European banking as they struggled to shore up their firms’ profitability. © Simon Zenger | Dreamstime.com Thursday’s results from Credit Suisse suggest Thiam may escape that fate while Cryan’s effort to revamp the German lender stalls. After a first-quarter...

Swiss Franc The Swiss Franc is having a very volatile week. With the European stress tests approaching and with a bad U.S. durable goods release, the EUR/CHF is on the descent again. Data on net immigration to Switzerland has been published. The number of people who are leaving Switzerland is on the rise and the net immigration number has fallen. This is positive for the euro and negative for CHF. This decrease in...

Summary: Japan reports on labor, consumption, inflation and industrial output before the BOJ meeting. ECB reports inflation and Q2 GDP and the results of the stress test on banks. US reports first look at Q2 GDP. Tomorrow could be among the most challenging sessions of the third quarter.   The focus is primarily on Japan and Europe, but the US reports its first estimate of Q2 GDP.  After a six-month soft...

After today’s uneventful Fed announcement, all eyes turn to the BOJ where many anticipate some form of “helicopter money” is about to be unveiled in Japan by the world’s most experimental central bank. However, as Nomura’s Richard Koo warns, central banks may get much more than they bargained for, because helicopter money “probably marks the end of the road for believers in the omnipotence of monetary policy who have...

  A Fragile System Claudio Grass, Global Gold: Ronald, it is a pleasure to have the opportunity to speak with you. We’ve known each other for a very long time, both on a personal and professional level. Because of our central banks, we find our economies today operating on artificial stimulus and negative interest rates. How would you summarize the consequences of this policy? Mr. Stoeferle: I have always considered...

[clear] [follow_author user=dorgang position=right text="Introduction by"] Summary: Fed upgraded its assessment of the economy. Added that the downside risks to the economy have diminished. Only George dissents.   The Federal Reserve met market expectations fully.  It upgraded its assessment of the economy, recognized...

Swiss Franc The Euro kept on climbing, after yesterday’s rapid rise. Click to enlarge. The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements.  The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy. Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator Japan As uncertainty over Japan’s fiscal stimulus roiled the yen and domestic...

The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements.  The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy. In June, the UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.24 to 1.34 points. This was mainly due to a better performance in the tourism industry as well as a slight improvement in sentiment in the retail trade....

Summary: The decline in oil prices is a factor weighing on the Canadian dollar. US premium over Canada is rising, and may continue as the economies diverge. The general risk appetite is supportive for the Canadian dollar. Our informal and simple model for the Canadian dollar has three variables.  Oil, interest rates, and general risk environment.  Over time, the coefficient of the variables can and do change....

  Champion of the Downtrodden? “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.” – H.L. Mencken A mass e-mail has been making the rounds lately, and it is quite possible that many of our readers have already seen this. For those who haven’t, we wanted to share this moment of hilarity provided to us by Deep State candidate Hillary Clinton. It revolves around...