SNB & CHF

(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) EM enjoyed a nice bounce to end last week. The global liquidity outlook has clearly moved in favor of EM, at least for now.  However, the overall global backdrop has not shifted in favor of EM just yet.  Bottom line:  enjoy this EM rally with a short-term timeframe in mind, with the idea that EM turbulence will likely return later this year. Idiosyncratic risks abound in the usual suspects.  The Brazilian real is likely to underperform in light of COPOM’s...

[unable to retrieve full-text content] Asia followed suit, extending the recovery seen in the last couple of sessions to end last week.  Equities rose as did oil prices.   The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose 1.2%, and the Nikkei posted its first back-to-back gains this year.  Brent firmed, with the March contract trading to $32.80.   However, in late-Asia and early Europe, the momentum fizzled.  Brent retreated $2 before finding support, and European equities edged lower before recovering...

The last execution in Switzerland during peacetime took place in 1940. The guillotine on which it was carried out is now an exhibit at Lucerne History Museum. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international events. For more articles, interviews and videos visit swissinfo.ch or subscribe to our YouTube channel: Website:...

With obstacles such as language barriers, lack of training, and prejudice, finding a job can be a daunting task for refugees and asylum seekers. Swiss public television meets Ursula Stämpfli, who is responsible for employment integration in the canton of St Gallen. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) --- swissinfo.ch is the international branch of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC). Its role is to report on Switzerland and to provide a Swiss perspective on international events. For more articles,...

This will be a brief report, as we’re focused on releasing our Outlook 2016 Report which is over 8,000 words of our assessment of the gold, silver, currency, and credit markets. Also, this was a holiday-shortened week (Monday was Martin Luther King Day in the US). But that did not stop the fireworks in silver on Friday. We will look at what happened below. On the week, the prices of the metals were up $9 and 7 cents, for gold and silver respectively. This happened with serious volatility...

Whatever force had gripped the global capital markets since the start of the year has been broken.   This simple characterization is rich.  It is not clear if or what macroeconomic considerations were driving the markets.  The markets had taken the unsurprising Fed rate hike in mid-December in stride. The dramatic moves in the market did not begin until this year.  Some have suggested China was at the crux of it, but the global impact seemed out of proportion.   Others suggested it was...

The latest Commitment of Traders report that covers the four sessions through January 19 saw speculators anticipating the continuation of the current moves.  Of the sixteen gross positions we track, only five were in reducing exposures.  Last week there was only six increased exposures.   With the benefit of hindsight, we know that something changed a day or two after the reporting period ended.  Given the magnitude of the reversal in some cases, some of these late positions were likely...

The first two and a half weeks of the new year saw persistent selling of equities, commodities, and emerging markets.  In the foreign exchange market, the dollar-bloc and sterling were crushed.  The yen was the single biggest beneficiary, and speculators in the CME are net long the yen in the futures market for the first time since late 2012.  It was as if many equity sellers returned from the year-end holidays, and got the jump start on the buyers.  Some of the selling was passive as...

ECB President Draghi made clear at yesterday's press conference that new risks have materialized and the central bank's job to reach its mandate is far from over. Current efforts may not suffice to achieve its legal prescribed mandate. Monetary policy will be reviewed and reassessed at the next meeting in March, when new staff forecasts will also be available. In his opening remarks, Draghi cited the "slightly expansionary" fiscal policy, "reflecting in particular measures in support of...

 (from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) 1) Malaysia’s central bank kept rates steady at 3.25%, as expected, but cut bank reserve ratios from 4% to 3.5%2) S&P downgraded Poland one notch to BBB+ with negative outlook3) Brazil’s central bank did a complete about-face and left rates steady at 14.25%4) Mexico may tweak its FX auction program again when it is extended this month5) Argentine officials met with IMF chief Lagarde at the World Economic Forum in Davos In the EM equity space, Russia...