SNB & CHF

Once Upon a Time… Prior to 1933, the name “dollar” was used to refer to a unit of gold that had a weight of 23.22 grains. Since there are 480 grains in one ounce, this means that the name dollar also stood for 0.048 ounce of gold. This in turn, means that one ounce of gold referred to $20.67. Now, $20.67 is not the price of one ounce of gold in terms of dollars as popular thinking has it, for there is no such entity...

Summary: The US recovery may have surpassed the 2001 recovery in Q2. Though disappointing, the recovery has been faster than average from a balance sheet crisis. Although slow, it is hard to see the secular stagnation in the data. This Great Graphic was tweeted Alan Kruger (@Alan_Kruger). Drawing on official data and the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now tracker for Q2 GDP (2.4%), it shows the current business cycle in...

  Apples to Oranges Either we’re doing something wrong or we’ve got the most criminal population on the planet. – Senator and 2016 presidential candidate Jim Webb PARIS – The stock market seemed chilled last week, like a corpse waiting for an autopsy.  Monday morning, gold was falling in Europe… as investors anticipate a higher dollar. But we’ll return to the markets, the dollar and the absurdities wrought by our...

Swiss Franc The Swiss Franc strangely depreciated on a day, when the other safe-haven, the yen strongly improved. The euro went up to 1.0899 by 0.54%. The reason seems to be technical. USD/CHF Finally over 200DMA? After USD/CHF broke the 200 days moving average (0.9854), and a descending channel since November 2015. This break could lead to a new pattern building. If the SNB has sustained the rise with some...

Submitted by the SRSrocco Report Record Swiss Gold Flow Into The United States There was a huge trend change in U.S. gold investment in May.  Something quite extraordinary took place which hasn’t happened for several decades.  While Switzerland has been a major source of U.S. gold exports for many years, the tables turned in May as the Swiss exported a record amount of gold to the United States. How much gold?  A...

Summary: The Fed’s nervousness in June has likely largely eased on the back of better economic data and stable international climate. The Fed may reintroduce its risk assessment. Who are the possible dissents? The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting concludes tomorrow.  There is little doubt that it will stand pat.  There is not press conference afterward, so the statement is the only thing investors will get....

Summary: European banks are worrisome. EBA’s stress test results will be out at the end of the week. Nonperforming loans are a separate issue, but also need to be addressed. The health of European banks has reemerged as an important market factor this year.  The IMF warned that the greatest risk to global financial stability stems from three European banks.  Branches of two European banks failed the Federal...

When x happens, yields fall — Rule 1? It’s not a search for yield, it’s a search for safety — Potential Rule 2? Two charts to make the point for us once again from the good folks at BofAML’s relative value department: Click to enlarge.  You could also pop in here and have a look at Credit Suisse’s roughly similar argument (and the state of the negatively rate inspired corporate bond market). CS’s point has to do with...

  Duped and Distorted DUBLIN – When you start thinking about what money is and how it works, you face isolation, shunning, and possible incarceration. The subject is so slippery – like a bead of mercury on a granite counter top – you become frustrated… and then… maniacal. You begin talking to yourself, because no one else will listen to you. If you are not careful, you may be locked up among the criminally insane....

Swiss Franc Click to enlarge. FX Rates What promises to be a busy week has begun off slowly.  The US dollar has been largely confined to its pre-weekend ranges against most of the major currencies. Equity markets are mostly firmer following the new record highs on Wall Street.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index eked out a small gain (0.1%), with losses in Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore offsetting gains elsewhere. ...