SNB & CHF

Summary: Biggest change is that Fed sees three instead of two hikes next year. Minor tweaks in the forecasts. Fiscal policy could raise the long-run growth potential, which would be a net good but not needed to reach full employment. As has been tipped since at September the Federal Reserve increased the Fed funds target range by 25 bp to 50-75 bp.  The market’s understanding of the Fed reaction function and the...

According to UN trade statistics, the small Alpine nation exported US$ 2.4 billion1 of coffee in 2013. This figure is far higher than its cheese (US$ 615 million2) or chocolate (US$ 822 million3) exports, two far more famous Swiss exports. In 2013, Swiss coffee exports ranked 4th behind Brazil ($5.3b), Germany ($3.4b) and Vietnam ($2.9b). Ethiopia, where the coffee plant originated, trailed back in 13th place with $771...

The elites’ toadies, lackeys, shills, sycophants, water-carriers and apologists are desperately hyping the context-free, historically ignorant narrative that “populism leads to autocracy” to protect the existing autocracy of the elites. There is only one narrative in the mainstream media about populism: it destroys democracy and leads straight to fascism. This is an ignorant and false narrative. Here’s a typical...

When Draghi extended QE in the November ECB meeting, it is was clear that Draghi was wrong. He is expecting lower inflation in 2018, maybe around 1%. The SNB reduced her inflation expectation by 0.1% for both years again, 0.1% in 2017 and 0.5% in 2018. Swiss National Bank leaves expansionary monetary policy unchanged The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy. Interest on sight...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, December 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge Sterling has made steady gains against the CHF over the past month and although the spike has levelled this week, the Pound has certainly gained a foothold. Yesterday’s decision by the US Federal Reserve to raise their base rate from 0.25% to 0.5% did little to shift the value of GBP/CHF but with investors...

I had the privilege of joining Scarlet Fu and Joe Wisenthal on the set of What’d You Miss on Bloomberg TV yesterday afternoon. It was within a couple of hours of the second Fed rate hike in a decade.   The dollar rallied.I was surprised by the changed forecasts.  The median forecast, which is not the same thing as the Fed view, edged about 25 bp higher across the forecasting horizon. I had thought the the aspirational...

But, but, but… growth, and inflation, and supply cuts, and growth again… Well that de-escalated quickly… As Libya restarts exports and The Fed sends the dollar soaring so WTI crude prices just broke back to a $49 handle for the first time since Dec 8th. WTI CrudeWTI Crude - Click to enlarge “The OPEC cuts are going to prevent some of the mega-glut,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director at Petromatrix GmbH in Zug,...

This great generational injustice is the direct consequence of central banks lowering interest rates to zero and inflating asset bubbles. How can middle class households have similar incomes but some are asset-rich and others are asset-poor? Spending and saving habits matter, of course; some households spend virtually all their net income while others “pay themselves first” and scrimp to do so. But the really big...

  Long Term Seasonal Price Trends Prices in financial and commodity markets are exhibiting seasonal trends. This applies to the precious metals gold, silver, platinum and palladium as well. Platinum Crystal, image via shapeways.com - Click to enlarge The chart below depicts the seasonal trends of the gold price over a time period of 45 years. Gold prices typically experience a seasonal rally in the second half of the...

Dec 15 – Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, is one of the most widely respected and sought after currency experts in the world. Today, he shares his outlook with FS Insider on the US dollar... http://www.financialsense.com/subscribe