SNB & CHF

  Investors have realized Brexit isn’t the end of the world. First, because they think it won’t really happen. After all, elites can fix elections, buy politicians, and control public policy… surely, they can fix this! A letter in the Financial Times reminds us that Swedish voters cast their ballots against nuclear power in 1980. The government just ignored them, doubling nuclear power generation over the next 36...

Indonesia’s parliament approved a tax amnesty bill Korea announced KRW20 trln ($17 bln) in fiscal stimulus Czech President Zeman said a referendum on EU and NATO membership should be held Russia ended its tourism ban to Turkey Brazil’s central bank is sending hawkish signals Banxico hiked rates by a larger than expected 50 bp to 4.25% Markets In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Brazil (+7.9%), Mexico...

  The Only Move for the Fed is Talking Down the Dollar The Fed has no more maneuvers other than to jawbone the dollar lower. Because for a variety of reasons a strong dollar, in the current market environment, is akin to tighter monetary policy. The Eccles Building US dollar index over the past 2 years And right now, in the wake of Brexit, tighter monetary policy is clearly not an option. Plus, a stronger dollar (by...

Brexit Volatility remained high with markets rebounding from last week’s heavy losses as tensions began to ease following the UK referendum. Bargain hunters took advantage of badly beaten up sectors on bets that central banks would ride to the rescue of investors by providing additional stimulus to avert disaster. Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, reassured markets that a rate cut could come as early as...

EUR/CHF stronger in Brexit week The EUR/CHF finished the week after Brexit with slight improvement of 0.18% (see the FX performance table below). The scare mongering by the Swiss media was misplaced.  The euro even recovered from a dip after BoE governor Carney’s comments on Thursday. We do not see strong SNB interventions at this elevated price level. We judged that the interventions happened below 1.08. Click to...

Swiss Franc  During the weak the Swiss Franc lost momentum. It could regain speed only on June 30. The stronger Franc was initiated by remarks  by BoE governor Carney. Sterling stayed on the defensive on Friday after unambiguously dovish comments from the Bank of England abruptly ended a tentative recovery in the currency, while the euro wobbled on speculation of more stimulus in Europe. Still trying to get over...

Summary Domestic-oriented UK companies have been marked down. The outperformance by UK’s global companies is a negative view of sterling. The drop in interest rates is in anticipation of a recession and easier BOE policy. Some observers argue the media and some economists are exaggerating the impact of the UK vote a week ago. They talk about the petition for a second referendum. They about Scotland vetoing the...

Money, generally accepted medium of exchange, acts as a veil that confuse and blurs economic relations. This is especially true when it comes to intertemporal considerations. Whilst probably the most important institution in a free market, money can be highly destructive when politicized. Why? Because politics is about power and distribution of real wealth. And since money affect almost every single transaction,...

The Best Thing About the EU is J.C. Juncker’s Alcoholism We recently discussed the post-Brexit landscape with a friend (in fact, our editor), who bemoaned that “the EU is led by a drunkard”. Our immediate reaction to this was to exclaim: “That’s the best thing about the EU!” Why do we think so? It makes this overpaid, useless bureaucrat human. Not only that, it clearly raises his entertainment value. As our regular...

30.06.2016 09:15  – FSO, Demography and Migration (0353-1606-50) More paternity acknowledgements and divorces Neuchâtel, 30.06.2016 (FSO) – Births outside marriage, paternity acknowledgements and divorces increased in 2015. There was also a rise in births in general and in deaths. Marriages and registered partnerships declined. These are the definitive findings of the Vital Statistics from the Federal Statistical...