SNB & CHF

The irony of the unemployment rate for the Federal Reserve is that the lower it gets now the bigger the problem it is for officials. It has been up to this year their sole source of economic comfort. Throughout 2015, the Establishment Survey improperly contributed much the same sympathy, but even it no longer resides on the plus side of the official ledger. So many people may have exited the labor force in May that the...

One Ear to the Ground, One Eye to the Future Treasury yields are attempting to say something.  But what it is exactly is open to interpretation.  What’s more, only the most curious care to ponder it. Like Southern California’s obligatory June Gloom, what Treasury yields may appear to be foreshadowing can be somewhat misleading. Behold, the risk-free tide… - Click to enlarge Are investors anticipating deflation or...

Swiss Franc The euro is up by 0.02% to 1.0851 CHF. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, June 09(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates What looked like a savvy move in late April has turned into a nightmare.  Collectively, voters have denied the governing Conservative party a parliamentary majority. The uncertainty today does not lie yesterday with the known unknown, but with the shape of the next...

Swiss pensions have three parts. The first is a standard payment based on the number of years you have paid social security taxes (AVS / AHV). The second (2nd pillar) is based on a personal pot of money built up from compulsory salary deductions. And the third is a personal pot derived from optional tax deductible savings, known as a 3rd pillar. All three are designed to come together to provide enough income in...

Almost 10,000 passengers and around 67,000 tonnes of freight pass through the 57-kilometre-long Gotthard Base Tunnel each day. Opened a year ago on June 1, the Gotthard’s success is putting the structure to the test. “We have kept our promise. The railway services are operating safely, reliably and punctually,” said Philippe Gauderon, Head of Infrastructure at Swiss Federal Railways, presenting the balance sheet for...

Negative interest rates and the populist uprising that spurred the UK to vote for Brexit and Americans to elect Trump has helped reignite a rush into physical safe haven assets like gold and silver, which however has led to a shortage of safe venues where to store the precious metals (unlike bitcoin, gold actually has a physical dimension). And now companies that operate storage facilities for precious metals and other...

This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, depicts the interest rate differential between the US and Germany. The euro-dollar exchange rate often seems sensitive to the rate differential. The white line is the two-year differential and the yellow line is the 10-year differential. There are a few observations to share. First, the 10-year premium is often greater than the two-year premium. It has been five years since this...

Both US manufacturing PMI’s underwhelmed just as those from China did. The IHS Markit Index was lower than the flash reading and the lowest level since last September. For May 2017, it registered 52.7, down from 52.8 in April and a high of 55.0 in January. Just by description alone you can appreciate exactly what pattern that fits. The ISM Manufacturing PMI was slightly higher in May than April, 54.9 versus 54.8, but...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.11%  to 1.0852 CHF. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, June 08(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Today has an anti-climactic feel to it. Yesterday’s leak of what is purported to be the ECB staff forecasts point to small downward revisions to inflation forecasts and an ever small upward tweak to growth. This would be in line with only mild changes in the forward...

Yesterday, the price comparison website Verivox published a study comparing mobile phone costs across 13 european countries. On most measures Switzerland was the most expensive, and by a wide margin. A plan including 100 minutes of talk and 1 Go (gigaoctet1) of data per month costs an average of CHF 25 per month in Switzerland. The same thing was significantly cheaper in Spain (CHF 20.70), Denmark (CHF 19.30), France...