SNB & CHF

Summary: Net exports was a large drag on growth. Inventories flattered growth. Underlying signal, final domestic demand, increased 2.5% after 2.1% in Q3. The first estimate of Q4 16 US GDP undershot expectations at 1.9%.Most had looked for annualized pace of a little more than 2% after the 3.5% pace in Q3.  The Q3 pace was always suspect given the unsustainable surge in agriculture (soy) exports.  Net exports...

Summary: Many are concerned that the dollar and interest rates have become decoupled. We are not convinced. Correlations, not to be eyeballed, are still robust. The US 10-year yield is at its highs for the year, and yet the US dollar has been struggling to gain traction.Some suggest that this means that the dollar rally is over.  Charts like this one are circulating among market participants. This  Great...

ZURICH (Reuters) – Net immigration to Switzerland slowed for a third consecutive year in 2016, potentially easing concerns over immigration that have strained Switzerland’s ties with the surrounding European Union. Around 143,100 immigrants arrived in Switzerland in 2016, down nearly 5 percent from the previous year, while around 78,000 foreigners left, an increase of 5.6 percent. This means that net immigration for the...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity increases, while REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners.On the other side, a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to...

Swiss Franc The euro collapsed today, both against USD and CHF. One reason might be the new record for Swiss exports and for the Swiss trade balance. EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, January 26(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge Sterling gains almost 2% against the Swiss Franc in 3 days, will the Pound continue to climb from here? The Pound has continued to climb throughout the week, after it was...

Switzerland’s Gold Exports To China Surge To 158 Tonnes In December Switzerland’s gold bullion exports to China saw a huge jump in December, climbing to 158 tons versus a much lower 30.6 tons in November –  a jump of 416%. According to Eddie van der Walt as reported on the Bloomberg terminal this morning, total Swiss gold exports surged to 287.6 tons in December (valued at CHF 10.8b) according to data on the website of...

On what Trump’s first working day as POTUS, I had the privilege to be on Bloomberg’s Daybreak to talk about the wagers on US interest rates in the futures market. In the most recent CFTC reporting week, which ended on January 17, speculators in the 10-year note futures market reduced the record net short position. It is only the second week reduction since the end of November. Anchor Alix Steel noted that while the...

Across the ten years to 2008, Switzerland lost an average of 3 working days per 1,000 workers to strikes a year. This compares to 32 days in Austria, 33 days in France, and 55 days in Italy. Germany was close behind Switzerland with 4 days. The combined average for Switzerland’s neighbours: Austria, Germany, France and Italy, was 26 days. Switzerland’s 3 day average was one ninth or 11% of this. © Ifeelstock |...

A look back at how two brothers introduced American-styled architecture to a remote Swiss village in the 1950s. (SRF, swissinfo.ch) The Guscetti brothers, one an engineer and one an architect, built houses inspired by American modernism in the southern Swiss canton of Ticino. Houses in the village of Ambri built by the duo contrasted starkly with the traditional sloped roof stone houses common to the area. Their designs were such a sensation that German toy manufacturer Faller went on to...

The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements. The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy. The UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.45 to 1.50 points in December. The positive trend of last fall continued and signalizes solid growth prospects for private consumption this year. New car registrations...