SNB & CHF

Swiss Franc . FX Rates The US dollar has opened the week softer against the major currencies, except for the Japanese yen. The disappointing US inflation and retail sales data before the weekend have not been shrugged off, even though the US 10-year yield is a little higher and expectations for a Fed hike next month continue to be elevated. There is more focus on positive developments elsewhere, especially in...

Swiss Franc Speculators were net short CHF in January 2015, shortly before the end of the peg, with 26.4K contracts. Then again in December 2015, when they expected a Fed rate hike, with 25.5K contracts. The biggest short CHF, however, happened in June 2007, when speculators were net short 80K contracts. Shortly after, the U.S. subprime crisis started. The carry trade against CHF collapsed. The...

Summary: Yen was the strongest currency in the world from mid-March to mid-April. Yen has been the weakest currency over the past month. US rates have risen relative to Japan. Japan has shifted away from QE and toward targeting interest rate. USD/JPY From March 10 through April 11, the Japanese yen was the strongest currency in the world. It appreciated 4.7% against the dollar.  Among the majors, sterling...

Building a transport tunnel through the Alps requires a lot of technical know-how (Keystone) - Click to enlarge Too many students turn their backs on engineering thinking it is a career for “nerds”, according to a leading Swiss business lobbyist. Changing this perception is key to plugging an expected shortfall of 50,000 engineering professionals in Switzerland. The proportion of engineers in the workforce...

Summary: The Trump Administration seems to be trying to cast the US as a revisionist power. Or perhaps it is like Roman emperors long ago trying to draw greater tribute from others. The outlook of US interest rates is critical to the outlook of the dollar. The main risk to investors in the week ahead comes from two unknowns. On the international stage, the biggest change in the last six months is not China or...

Stock Markets EM FX ended last week on a firmer note, helped by lower US rates and softer than expected CPI and retail sales data. Stabilizing commodity prices also helped EM. Yet these supportive conditions seem unlikely to persist, and we remain defensive on EM.   Stock Markets Emerging Markets, May 10 Source: economist.com - Click to enlarge Brazil Brazil will report April tax collections this week, but no...

The Swiss National Bank is the process of issuing new bank notes. A new 50 franc note hit the streets last year. Now it is the new 20 franc note’s turn. Officially launched today, it will enter circulation on 17 May 2017. A photograph of the note was posted on Facebook by Bilan: The new red note, designed around the theme of light, has a few secrets. It can be be washed without losing any of its colour, so you don’t...

The arrest of a suspected Swiss spy in Germany has raised questions about what roles the Swiss secret service, the state public prosecutor and UBS bank played in the affair. The 54-year-old man, known as Daniel M, is accused of spying on the German tax authorities to find out who sold stolen Swiss banking data. His arrest more than a week ago has prompted a diplomatic...

The arrest of a suspected Swiss spy in Germany has raised questions about what roles the Swiss secret service, the state public prosecutor and UBS bank played in the affair. The 54-year-old man, known as Daniel M, is accused of spying on the German tax authorities to find out who sold stolen Swiss banking data. His arrest more than a week ago has prompted a diplomatic...

Endangered Recovery As we noted in a recent corporate debt update on occasion of the troubles Neiman-Marcus finds itself in (see “Cracks in Ponzi Finance Land”), problems are set to emerge among high-yield borrowers in the US retail sector this year. This happens just as similar problems among low-rated borrowers in the oil sector were mitigated by the rally in oil prices since early 2016. The recovery in the oil...