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KOF Zurich

KOF Swiss Economic Institute defines itself as one of the leading economic “think tanks” in Switzerland. In this prospect, KOF (acronym for the German word "Konjunkturforschungsstelle", which means business cycle research institute) aims to play two roles, one as a mediator between a broader public (politics, society) and the research community, and one as a leading platform for economists, especially within Switzerland.

Articles by KOF Zurich

KOF Economic Barometer: Strongest monthly plunge since 2015

March 31, 2020

The reading of the KOF Economic Barometer dropped drastically in March and is now with 92.9 well below its long-​term average. Accordingly, the Swiss economy can be expected to see a marked decline in growth rates in the near future. This plunge of the Barometer reflects the first economic consequences of the accelerated spread of the Coronavirus.

The KOF Economic Barometer fell by 8.9 points in March, from 101.8 (revised from 100.9) down to 92.9. The Barometer thus plunged from its long-​term average about as low as after the minimum exchange rate for the Swiss franc was abandoned in January 2015. Its troughs at the time of the economic crisis in 2008/9 were still significantly lower, but a large part of the survey responses underlying the Barometer were

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KOF Economic Barometer: Stabilization at a low level

October 30, 2019

The KOF Economic Barometer has halted its downward movement, at least for the time being. At 94.7 points, however, the barometer is still well below its long-​term average. The Swiss economy is therefore likely to grow with below-​average rates in the upcoming months.

In October, the KOF Economic Barometer rose by 1.6 points, from 93.1 points in September (revised from 93.2 points) to 94.7 points. This increase is attributable in particular to bundles of indicators from the banking and insurance sector as well as from accommodation and food service activities. Furthermore, indicators regarding foreign demand and other services are pointing in a slightly less negative direction than in the previous month. On the other hand, indicators from the manufacturing

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KOF Economic Barometer: Upswing Sets a More Leisurely Pace

October 30, 2018

The KOF Economic Barometer fell in October after having risen in the previous month. At 100.1 points, the barometer is now as good as on its long-term average of 100.0. Since May of this year, the KOF Economic Barometer has thus been fluctuating around its long-term average. The Swiss economy is therefore in the coming months likely to grow with average rates.

In October, the KOF Economic Barometer fell by 2.2 points, from 102.3 points in September (revised from 102.2 points) to 100.1 points. It is noteworthy that this decline is quite broadly visible in various indicator bundles. The decline in the indicators for the manufacturing sector is particularly striking. But the minus is also visible in the

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KOF Economic Barometer: Falling

August 30, 2018

In August 2018, the KOF Economic Barometer fell slightly by 1.4 points to a new reading of 100.3. It thus now pints to a level that is only marginally above its long-term average. Accordingly, in the near future Swiss growth should hover around its average over the last ten years.

In August 2018, the KOF Economic Barometer fell from 101.7 in the previous month (revised up from 101.1) by 1.4 points to a level of 100.3. This confirms the impression that the height phase of 2017, in which the barometer was continuously significantly above average, is for the time being not returning.
The strongest contributions to this negative result come from manufacturing, followed by the indicators from the exporting

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KOF Economic Barometer, July: Remains Practically Unchanged

July 30, 2018

The KOF Economic Barometer only slightly moved in July. Compared to its June value, it decreased by 0.2 to 101.1 points. The current Barometer value still stands slightly above the long-term average of 100 points; it thus indicates a slightly above-average economic development in Switzerland in the coming months.
In July, the KOF Economic Barometer fell slightly to 101.1 points from 101.3 in June (101.7 in the initial publication in June). Negative indicators for manufacturing, the export industry and the accommodation and food service activities sector were mainly responsible for the slight decrease. Positive signals come from the banking and the construction sectors.
In the goods producing sectors (manufacturing

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KOF Economic Barometer: Economic Outlook Improves Slightly

June 29, 2018

The KOF Economic Barometer rose again in June for the first time in three months. It increased by 1.7 points to 101.7 points, stopping its downward tendency in spring. The current Barometer value is now slightly above the long-term average of 100.0. Thus, the KOF Economic Barometer indicates a slightly above-average economic development in Switzerland. The tailwind for the Swiss economy is no longer as strong as during winter.

In June, the KOF Economic Barometer rose slightly to 101.7 points from 100.0 in May (100.0 in the initial publication in May). The indicator bundles for export development made a particularly clear contribution to this improvement. However, there have also been positive developments in

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KOF Economic Barometer: Falls Back to its Long-term Average

May 30, 2018

The KOF Economic Barometer for May fell by 3.3 points to a new standing of exactly 100 points. The last time the Barometer had a similar standing was in December 2015. The current value of 100 points to an average development of the Swiss economy in the coming months.

In May, the KOF Economic Barometer fell by 3.3 points to 100 points from revised 103.3 in April (first publication in April: 105.3). Within a few months’ time, the Barometer has therefore reached its long-term average after over two years of above average values. At least for the time being, this indicates a normalization of economic development. The decrease by 3.3 points is mainly driven by the negative development of the indicators for

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KOF Economic Barometer: Economic Outlook Remains Stable

April 30, 2018

The KOF Economic Barometer for April points to an almost stable economic development. It has risen minimally, by 0.2 points, to 105.3 points. Although the Barometer currently does not reach the positive values seen at the turn of the year 2017/2018, the current value is clearly above long-term average. The Swiss economic outlook remains favourable.

In April, the KOF Economic Barometer rose slightly to 105.3 points from a revised 105.1 in March (in its first publication in March: 106.0). Although the overall brightening of 0.2 points is tiny, it is broadly visible in the economic sectors included. The indicator bundles for manufacturing, accommodation and food service activities, banking, construction and

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KOF Economic Barometer is Falling

March 29, 2018

In March 2018, the KOF Economic Barometer fell by 2.4 points to a new reading of 106.0. Notwithstanding this decline, the present position is still on a level clearly above its long-term average. This indicates that in the near future the Swiss economy should continue to grow at rates above average.

In March 2018, the KOF Economic Barometer fell from 108.4 in the previous month (revised up from 108.0) by 2.4 points to a level of 106.0. This drop of the barometer more than corrected its rise in February. From a longer-term perspective, whilst the barometer is quite volatile at the right margin, it is moving in a range clearly above average since autumn 2016.
The strongest negative contributions to this result

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KOF Economic Barometer Stabilises at a High Level

February 28, 2018

In February 2018, the KOF Economic Barometer rose by 0.4 points to a new reading of 108.0. After the previous month’s decline, it thus stabilised its position on a level clearly above its long-term average. This indicates that in the near future the Swiss economy should continue to grow at rates above average.

In February 2018, the KOF Economic Barometer climbed from 107.6 in January (revised up from 106.9) by 0.4 points to a level of 108.0. Accordingly, the barometer at least partly corrected its decline in January. From a longer-term perspective, the early 2017 improved sentiment appears to continue.
The strongest positive contributions to this result come from the construction sector, followed by the

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KOF Economic Barometer: Easing

January 30, 2018

In January, the KOF Economic Barometer does not continue its upward tendency, which started in September 2017, but has declined. However, despite the decline, the indicator remains well above its long-term average. It still indicates a more dynamic economic development than in mid-2017. The recovery of the Swiss economy is thus likely to continue, albeit with slightly less momentum than indicated in the past few months.

In January 2018, the KOF Economic Barometer declined compared to the previous month (revised to 111.4 from 111.3) by 4.5 points to a value of 106.9. Despite the decline, the indicator remains well above its long-term average and the recovery of the Swiss economy is thus likely to continue.
Declines

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KOF Economic Barometer: Swiss Economy Gains Pace

November 30, 2017

The KOF Economic Barometer continued its upward tendency in November. It rose by 0.5 points to 110.3 points (after revised 109.8 in October). This is the third consecutive increase of the indicator. The Swiss economy continues to gain momentum towards the end of the year.

As in the previous month, the indicators for manufacturing are responsible for a substantial part of the increase. In addition, the indicators for construction activity have also turned positive again, following a decline in the previous month. In November, export prospects and the outlook for consumption and the accommodation and food service activities remained largely unchanged. The indicators for the banking industry, on the other

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KOF Economic Barometer: Prospects for the Swiss Economy Continue to Brighten Up

October 30, 2017

The KOF Economic Barometer rose by 3.0 points in October. This is the second upward movement in succession. The indicator reached 109.1 points in October (after revised 106.1 in September). Autumn is welcoming the Swiss economy with a tailwind.

In October 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer rose to a new reading of 109.1 points, its highest level since September 2010. The upward tendency is mainly driven by the banking and manufacturing indicators. However, the prospects for exports and the accommodation and food service activities are also somewhat better than before. The indicators for domestic consumption are stagnating, and the indicators for the further development of the construction sector have declined

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KOF Economic Barometer: Outlook for the Swiss Economy Remains Favourable

September 29, 2017

In September 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer increases by 1.6 points. It thus partially reverses its previous month’s decline. With a new reading of 105.8, the Barometer still points to a level clearly above its long-term average. This indicates that the outlook remains favourable – the Swiss economy should continue to grow at above average rates in the near future.

In September 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer increases compared to the previous month (revised from 104.1 to 104.2) by 1.6 points to a level of 105.8. Accordingly, it partially reverses its decline in August. The Barometer still stands markedly above its long-term average. It thus indicates a continuation of growth with rates above average,

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KOF Economic Barometer Falls

August 30, 2017

In August 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer fell by 3.9 points. It thus more than reversed its previous month’s climb. With a new reading of 104.1, however, it still points to a level clearly above its long-term average. This indicates that in the near future the Swiss economy should continue to grow at above average rates.

In August 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer fell from 108.0 in July (revised up from 106.8) by 3.9 points to a level of 104.1. Accordingly, the barometer more than revised its climb in July. It still stands markedly above its long-term average; and the last few months do not reveal any clear down- or upward trend. It thus indicates a continuation of growth with rates above average, but no

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KOF Economic Barometer: Outlook for the Swiss Economy Remains Favourable

July 28, 2017

The KOF Economic Barometer rose further and reaches a value of 106.8 in July. In June, the Barometer stood at a value of 105.8 (revised from 105.5). The Barometer has been trending above its historical average for some time now and the outlook for the Swiss economy remains favourable.

In July 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer rose further – the new reading of 106.8 remains above its long-term average. The strongest impulses contributing positively to the dynamics of the Barometer stem from indicators for the tourist industry as well as from the ones for the export development. The indicators for the construction activity also show an upward tendency. On the other hand, the data for the manufacturing industry

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KOF Economic Barometer Decreases Substantially

June 3, 2017

In May 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer fell by 4.7 points (from revised 106.3 in April) to a new standing of 101.6. After a slight downward correction in the last month, the indicator’s value decreased substantially this month. However, with a standing slightly above its long-term average, the Barometer is signalling solid growth rates for the Swiss economy around its long-term average.

In May 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer stands, with its new value of 101.6 points, slightly above its long-term average. However, it did decrease substantially as compared to April. The decrease was mainly due to negative contributions by manufacturing. In addition, the indicators for the export development and for domestic

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KOF Economic Barometer April: Is Easing

April 28, 2017

In April, the KOF Economic Barometer does not continue its upward tendency, which started at the beginning of 2017, but has declined slightly. However, despite the decline, the indicator is still well above its long-term average. It still indicates a more dynamic economic development than at the beginning of 2017. The recovery of the Swiss economy is likely to continue, albeit with a little less momentum than indicated in the past two months.
In April 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer declined compared to the previous month (revised to 107.2 from 107.6) by 1.2 points to a value of 106.0. Declines in the hotel and restaurant industry, in the manufacturing and construction sector are responsible for this weakening. The indicators for private consumption and export development are also easing slightly in April. The banking sector is stepping up against this, with upwards pointing indicators.
Within manufacturing, prospects are developing unevenly. The outlook for the electrical and electronic, chemical, wood and food industries has deteriorated. On the other hand, the prospects have improved particularly in the metal, other processing and machinery industries.

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