by But this may say little about Trump’s 2020 prospects.Most opinion polls suggest that the Democrats will win a majority in the House in the 6 November midterms, while the Republicans will retain their majority in the Senate.The historical relationship between the president’s approval rating and seats lost by his party in the midterms further corroborates the likelihood of a loss of House seats for the Republicans. The incumbent president’s party tends to face an erosion of seats, with a few exceptions. Bill Clinton and George W. Bush’s parties won a few seats at midterm elections, but both presidents had exceptionally high approval ratings at the time.Previous midterms have revealed apathy or disillusionment among some voters who supported the president two years prior. If this proves the
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Thomas Costerg considers the following as important: Donald Trump, Macroview, US elections, US politics
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But this may say little about Trump’s 2020 prospects.
Most opinion polls suggest that the Democrats will win a majority in the House in the 6 November midterms, while the Republicans will retain their majority in the Senate.
The historical relationship between the president’s approval rating and seats lost by his party in the midterms further corroborates the likelihood of a loss of House seats for the Republicans. The incumbent president’s party tends to face an erosion of seats, with a few exceptions. Bill Clinton and George W. Bush’s parties won a few seats at midterm elections, but both presidents had exceptionally high approval ratings at the time.
Previous midterms have revealed apathy or disillusionment among some voters who supported the president two years prior. If this proves the case next month, the defeat would not necessarily have any implications for the 2020 presidential elections, when Trump may run again.
Trump has recently tried to expand his reach beyond his ‘core’ base of voters (where his popularity is solid), to increase his popularity among centrists and independents, where his support is less secure. His recent push for tax cuts for the middle class could be evidence of this. However, it is unclear whether or not this will be sufficient to secure the Republican party’s majority in the House.
Key for Democrats is successfully mobilising their base to the voting booth. There is still high uncertainty around the opinion polls’ ability to provide an accurate prediction given the uncertain voter turnout.
