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Message from the ECB: Enjoy summer!

Summary:
Today’s Governing Council meeting did little to break the seasonal torpor. We continue to expect its first rate hike to come in September 2019.There was no change in interest rates or forward guidance at today’s ECB Governing Council meeting.The Governing Council reaffirmed that bond purchases will end in December and that key interest rates are expected to remain at their present levels “at least through the summer of 2019”.The ECB said it remained confident about the euro area’s economic outlook and still saw risks to growth as “broadly balanced”.Trade tensions and the ECB’s bond-reinvestment strategy were the main focus of an unusually short Q&A session.Overall, there was no significant surprise from today’s press conference. As such, we remain comfortable with our forecast of a first

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Today’s Governing Council meeting did little to break the seasonal torpor. We continue to expect its first rate hike to come in September 2019.

There was no change in interest rates or forward guidance at today’s ECB Governing Council meeting.

The Governing Council reaffirmed that bond purchases will end in December and that key interest rates are expected to remain at their present levels “at least through the summer of 2019”.

The ECB said it remained confident about the euro area’s economic outlook and still saw risks to growth as “broadly balanced”.

Trade tensions and the ECB’s bond-reinvestment strategy were the main focus of an unusually short Q&A session.

Overall, there was no significant surprise from today’s press conference. As such, we remain comfortable with our forecast of a first 15bp hike in the deposit facility rate in September 2019, followed by a 25bp hike in all policy rates in December 2019, bringing the deposit rate up to 0%.

Nadia Gharbi
Nadia Gharbi is economist at Pictet Wealth Management. She graduates in Université de Genève, Les Acacias, Canton of Geneva, Switzerland Do not hesitate to contact Pictet for an investment proposal. Do not hesitate to contact Pictet for an investment proposal. Please contact Zurich Office, the Geneva Office or one of 26 other offices world-wide.

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