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Tag Archives: USD

Rising Rates Underpin the Greenback

 Overview: The US dollar remains firm ahead of the July CPI release, and even though Chicago Fed Evans demurred from the hawkish talk, the market is getting more comfortable with the idea of a rate hike next year.   The implied yield of the December 2022 Eurodollar futures is rising for the sixth consecutive session.  Most emerging market currencies are also under pressure.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index edged up yesterday to snap a five-day drop but...

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Gold’s Flash Crash and Limited Follow-Through Greenback Gains

Overview:  A flash crash saw gold drop more than $70 an ounce in early Asia. Silver was dragged lower too.  The precious metals have stabilized at lower levels, but it signals a rough adjustment to a higher interest rate environment as a hawkish BOE and strong US employment data suggest peak monetary stimulus is at hand.  The dollar is broadly mostly firmer against the major and emerging market currencies.  The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is lower for...

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The Greenback Reversed Higher in the Middle of Last Week and the Jobs Data Provided an Accelerant

The second consecutive monthly surge in US non-farm payrolls of more than 900k ensured that the five-week decline in the 10-year yield was over and sent the dollar to new highs for the week against most of the major currencies.  The two-year yield's 2.5 basis point increase does not sound like much, but it is the largest increase in seven weeks and the second-largest increase since early April.  Against most of the major currencies, the dollar reversed higher in the...

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US Employment Data is Important but for the Millionth Time, Don’t Exaggerate It

Overview: Record high closes yesterday for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have done little to help global equities today.  Most of the Asia Pacific region markets, but Japan and Australia slipped ahead of the weekend while still holding on to gains for the week.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is threatening to snap a four-day advance, and US futures are trading a little lower. The US 10-year yield reached 1.125% in the middle of the week and is extending yesterday's...

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Yesterday’s Dollar Recovery Stalls

Overview: US interest rates and the dollar turned higher following comments by the Fed's Vice Chairman Clarida, who appeared to throw his lot with the more hawkish members. The dollar recovered from weakness that had seen it fall to almost JPY108.70, its lowest level since late May, and lifted the euro to $1.19.  Still, there has been little follow-through dollar or Treasury buying today.  The euro and yen are marginally softer, but most other major currencies post...

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FX Daily, July 22: Enguard Lagarde

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.08% to 1.0828 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The rally in US shares yesterday, ostensibly fueled by strong earnings reports, is helping to encourage risk appetites today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is posting its biggest gain in around two weeks, though Japan’s markets are closed today and tomorrow. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is...

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FX Daily, July 21: Did Japan Deliver a Fait Accompli to the US?

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.18% to 1.0837 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The biggest rally in US equities in four months has helped stabilize global shares today. In the Asia Pacific region, Japan, China, and Australian markets advanced. Led by information technology and consumer discretionary sectors, Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up around 1.35% near the...

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FX Daily, July 20: Doom and Gloom Takes Toll

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.16% to 1.0846 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 20(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The capital markets have begun stabilizing after yesterday’s dramatic moves. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index did, though, see follow-through selling, and the third consecutive loss saw the benchmark close below its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year. Europe’s Dow Jones...

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FX Daily, July 16: BOJ Tweaks Forecasts

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.10% to 1.085 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The markets head into the weekend with little fanfare. Most large equity markets in the Asia Pacific region slipped earlier today. Hong Kong, which will be exempt from the need to secure mainland’s cybersecurity approval for foreign IPOs, and Australia were notable exceptions. European...

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FX Daily, July 15: Strong Gains in US CPI and PPI Don’t Stop the Bond Market Rally

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.08% to 1.0837 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 15(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Strong inflation prints this week have not prevented the long-term US interest rates from tumbling. The 10-year yield is about 10 bp lower than where it closed on Tuesday after the lackluster 30-year auction. The 30-year yield itself is 11 bp lower. Fed Chair Powell did not break new...

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