Overview: The jump in US interest rates helped lift the greenback to new 20-year highs against the Japanese yen and pushed the euro back below $1.07. US equities saw initially strong gains pared and this set the tone for today’s activity. Most of the equity markets in the Asia Pacific region fell, but Japan and China. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is giving back more than half of yesterday’s 0.9% gain. US futures are off about 0.5%. The US 10-year yield is off a couple of...
Read More »Greenback Looks Poised for Additional Gains
The divergent performances make it challenging to talk about the G10 currencies last week. The Canadian dollar led the advancing major currencies with a 1.2% gain last week. It and the Australian dollar rose above last month's highs. On the other side was the Japanese yen. The more than 20 bp backing up of the US 10-year yield, the biggest weekly advance in two months, lifted the dollar by more than 2.8% against the yen. That is the biggest weekly gain since March...
Read More »Moderating Labor Market is what the Fed Wants
Overview: For the large rally in US stocks yesterday and the sell-off in the dollar, US rates were surprisingly little changed. This set the tone for today’s action, ahead of the US employment data. Asia Pacific equities moved higher and Europe’s Stoxx 600 has edged up to extend yesterday’s rise. The 10-year US Treasury yield is little changed, hovering around 2.91%. European benchmark yields are 1-3 bp higher. The greenback has stabilized after yesterday’s fall. The...
Read More »Dollar Gains Pared
Overview: Asia Pacific equities were mostly lower. China and India bucked the trend. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is steady with no follow through selling after yesterday reversal. US index futures are posting modest gains and are trying to snap a two-day drop. The US 10-year yield is firm at 2.91%, while European benchmark rates are 2-3 bp higher. Asia Pacific bonds were dragged lower by the sell-off in the US yesterday. The dollar is broadly lower. The Swedish krona...
Read More »Bank of Canada’s Turn
Overview: The recent equity rally is stalling. Asia Pacific equities were mixed, with Japan, South Korea, and Australia, among the major bourses posting gains. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 500 is slipping lower for the second consecutive session, ending a four-day bounce. US equity futures are little changed. The US 10-year yield is edging higher at 2.86%, while European yields are slightly lower. The greenback is firm against most of the major currencies. The Australian...
Read More »Macro and Prices: Sentiment Swings Between Inflation and Recession
(On vacation for the rest of the month. Going to Portugal. Commentary will resume on June 1. Good luck to us all.)The market is a fickle mistress. The major central banks were judged to be behind the inflation curve. Much teeth-gashing, finger-pointing. Federal Reserve Chair Powell was blamed for denying that a 75 bp hike was under consideration. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda was blamed for keeping the 0.25% cap on the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield....
Read More »Dollar and Yen Surge
Overview: Global equities are bleeding lower. Several large markets in the Asia Pacific region, including Hong Kong, Taiwan, and India are off more than 2%. Japan and Australian bourses fell by more than 1.5%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off more than 2% and giving back the gains recorded in the past two sessions plus some. US futures are extending yesterday's loses. The sharp sell-off of equities has given the sovereign bond market a strong bid. The 10-year US Treasury...
Read More »No Rest for the Weary
Overview: Risk appetites are improving on the margin. Asia Pacific stocks still fell after the sharp losses on Wall Street on Monday. Still, China, Taiwan and Indian equities traded higher. Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a four-day 6.5%+ slide and is up around 1.2% in late European morning turnover. US equity futures are up over 1%. The 10-year Treasury yield that pushed to 3.20% yesterday is a little above 3% now. European benchmark yields are 5-7 bp lower and the...
Read More »Fed Day
Overview: The markets are mostly treading water ahead of the FOMC decision later today. Tech stocks tumbled in Hong Kong and the Hang Seng fell a little more than 1%, while India was the worst performer in the region falling over 2% following an unexpected and intra-meeting hike by the Reserve Bank of India. It raised the repo rate to 4.4% from 4.0%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is a little lower and has been unable to close the gap from Monday created from the lower...
Read More »RBA Surprises with a 25 bp Hike
Overview: The large bourses in Asia Pacific except Hong Kong eased. Japan and China’s mainland markets are closed for the holiday. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up about 0.6%. It gapped lower yesterday and has not entered the gap today. US futures are a little softer. The 10-year Treasury nicked the 3%-mark yesterday and is just below there now. European benchmark yields are mostly 1-3 bp higher, but the UK Gilt yield has jumped eight basis points, and Australia’s surged 13...
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