Tag Archives: USD

Overview: The rise in global interest rates continues. The US 10-year yield is a few basis points near 3.15% and European benchmarks are mostly 5-6 bp higher. Of note, the sharp sell-off in UK Gilts has being extended. Yesterday’s 10 bp rise has been followed by another 14 bp surge today. Italian bonds are also getting hit. The 10-year yield is up a little more than 10 bp. The US dollar is mostly firmer against the major currencies, though the yen and Australian...

Overview: Corrective pressures were evident yesterday and they extended today in Asia and Europe but seem to be running their course now. Market participants should view these developments as countertrend and be wary of waning risk appetites in North America today. Most Asia Pacific equities rallied earlier today, save China and Hong Kong. Europe’s Stoxx 600 has retraced most of yesterday’s losses and US futures are trading higher. Benchmark bond yields are softer...

Overview: The reverberations from last week continue to roil the capital markets today. Equities and bonds have been sold and the greenback bought. Most of the large markets in Asia Pacific fell by more 2%, including Japan’s Nikkei, Taiwan’s Taiex, and South Korea’s Kospi. Ironically, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Composites eked out minor gains, but the CSI 300 still eased. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off 1% after falling nearly 1.7% before the weekend. US futures warn of...

The poor preliminary PMI readings, the ongoing European energy crisis, and the recognized commitment of most major central banks to rein in prices through tighter financial conditions are risking a broad recession. These considerations are weighing on sentiment and shaping the investment climate. Most high-frequency data due in the days ahead will not change this, even if they pose some headline risk.  What we have seen among some central bankers applies to market...

Overview: Ahead of the much-anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chair Powell, the Fed funds futures are pricing in about a 70% chance of a 75 bp hike next month.  The US 10-year yield is up nearly five basis points today to 3.07% and the two-year yield is firm at 3.38%.  Asia Pacific equities were mostly higher, with China the main exception among the large markets, after US equities rallied yesterday.  Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off about 0.3% to bring this week’s...

Overview: It seems that many market participants had the same thing in mind, cut dollar longs before the Jackson Hole gathering. The Antipodeans lead the majors move, encouraged perhaps by China’s new economic measures, with around a 1% gain. The euro and sterling are up about 0.35% and are the laggards. Emerging market currencies are higher as well, with the notable exception of India and Turkey, which are nursing small losses. Equities are having a good day. All...

Overview: A simply dreadful flash US PMI stopped the dollar’s four-day rally in its tracks. It followed news that the eurozone, Japan, and Australia’s composite PMIs are below the 50 boom/bust level. However, the dollar recovered, even if not fully as the market seemed unconvinced that the data could change Fed Chair Powell’s message at Jackson Hole on Friday. A consolidative tone is evident today. Asia Pacific equities were mixed. China and Hong Kong fell more than...

 Overview:  The poor eurozone PMI underscores likely recession and weighs on the single currency, which was sold to a new 20-year low.  Rather than a "Turn Around Tuesday"  a broadly consolidative session is unfolding. Asian and European equities are weaker, while US futures are positive but little changed.  Benchmark 10-year bond yields are mostly firmer and the premium offered by Europe's periphery is edging higher.  The US 10-year is little changed near 3.02%....

Overview: The euro traded below parity for the second time this year and sterling extended last week’s 2.5% slide. While the dollar is higher against nearly all the emerging market currencies, it is more mixed against the majors. The European currencies have suffered the most, except the Norwegian krone. The dollar-bloc and yen are also slightly firmer. The week has begun off with a risk-off bias. Nearly all the large Asia Pacific equity markets were sold. Chinese...

For many, this will be the last week of the summer. However, in an unusual twist of the calendar, the US August employment report will be released on September 2, the end of the following week, rather than after the US Labor Day holiday (September 5).  The main economic report of the week ahead will be the preliminary estimate of the August PMI. The policy implications are not as obvious as they may seem. For example, in July, the eurozone composite PMI slipped...