Tag Archives: US wage inflation

Virtually static in 2016, we continue to believe that core inflation will pick up only modestly in 2017.Core PCE inflation in the US settled at 1.7% y-o-y in December, in line with consensus and exactly the same rate as in February 2016. We continue to believe that PCE core inflation will pick up only modestly in 2017, ending the year at around 2.1%.Following a significant pick-up between October 2015 and February 2016 , y-o-y core PCE inflation stabilised at around 1.6%-1.7% for the...

Amid conflicting wage signals and low inflation expectations, core US prices look like rising only gradually to end 2017.Core US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation remained stable at 1.7% year on year (y-o-y) in September, in line with consensus expectations. We continue to believe that core PCE inflation will pick up modestly over the coming months. Our forecast that it will reach 1.9% y-o-y by year-end and 2.1% in December 2017 remains unchanged.Labour market slack has...

Core PCE, the Fed's favoured inflation gauge, remained stable 1.6% in April Read full report here As widely expected, core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation in the US came in at 1.6% in April, the same rate as in March. Overall, we continue to believe that year-on-year (y-o-y) PCE core inflation — a key price measure for the Fed — will end this year at around 1.9%, i.e. only slightly higher than the average rate registered so far this year (1.7%). The marked pick-up in...