Tag Archives: US participation rate

After a solid February job report, we continue to expect four Fed rate hikes this year (and two in 2019).There are two main conclusions to be drawn from the February US employment report. First, the US economy’s underlying momentum is particularly robust, consistent with our view that GDP growth will pick up to 3.0% this year, from 2.3% in 2017. Second, while the labour market is tight, there is still some slack left; in other words, the US labour market is not (yet) overheating.That...

The latest non-farm payroll report is unlikely to make the Fed deviate from plans for policy normalisation.All in all, today’s employment report was healthy. In the end, job creation was actually quite robust overall in Q2, ‘aggregate weekly payrolls’ rose strongly q-o-q, and if unemployment rebounded a little in June, it was only because of higher participation, not a lack of employment growth. However, once again, wage data brought some disappointment, with average hourly earnings...

Slowdown in job creation and uptick in unemployment should not deter Fed from raising rates in December. Non-farm payrolls in the US rose by 156,000 month-on-month (m-o-m) in September, below consensus expectations, while nonfarm payrolls in July and August taken together were 7,000 lower than previous estimates. All in all, this was a slightly disappointing report, in contrast with a string of strong US economic indicators published in recent days, including the ISM indices for...

There is something for everyone in today’s US jobs report, and at the end of the day, it is unlikely to sway opinion about the direction and timing of the next Fed move. The greenback itself may remain range bound after the initial flurry. On the other hand, the disappointing but noisy Canadian data underscores the risk of a more dovish slant to the central bank’s neutral stance next week. United States Nonfarm...