Other data have been more mixed and our forecast for U.S. growth remains unchanged for Q4.The ISM Manufacturing index increased modestly in October, to 51.9 from 51.5 in September, slightly above consensus expectations (51.7). However, following a sharp increase to 57.1 in September, the Non-manufacturing index fell back to 54.8 in October, below consensus expectations (56.0).The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index over the past two months confirmed that the declines in the dollar’s...
Read More »July ISM numbers show U.S. business activity remains strong
Solid manufacturing and non-manufacturing numbers plus strong consumer spending mean we expect 2.5% GDP growth in the US in Q3 Although the ISM Manufacturing index in the US dropped back a little to 52.6 in July, it remained well above the low levels recorded at the turn of the year. The Non-manufacturing index moved back down as well but remained at relatively healthy levels.The rebound in the ISM Manufacturing index over the past few months is both encouraging and a bit surprising. The...
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