Tag Archives: US economic forecast

While there are plenty of signs we are in the late stage of the business cycle, and while the Fed is tightening policy, we do not expect a recession in the US.The US economy is doing fine and we continue to expect solid growth in the coming quarters. The strength of corporate profits versus still-subdued unit labour costs is a sign of the robustness of the underlying US business cycle.One risk sometimes evoked is a sudden acceleration in inflation. But we forecast that core PCE inflation...

In spite of disappointment on the fiscal policy front and even though we expect a slowdown in growth next year, the US economy remains in fine fettle.Chaotic developments in the White House and ongoing gridlock in Congress have significantly reduced our expectations that the Trump Administration will bring a major fiscal boost to the US economy, particularly in 2018. In other words, we no longer expect a growth- and sentiment-boosting fiscal reform, nor a large-scale infrastructure spending...