Overview: The US dollar is consolidating yesterday’s losses but is still trading with a heavier bias against the major currencies and most emerging market currencies. The US 10-year yield is soft below 2.77%, while European yields are mostly 2-4 bp higher. The peripheral premium over the core is a little narrower today. Equity markets, following the US lead, are higher today. The Hang Seng and China’s CSI 300 rose by more than 2% today. Europe’s Stoxx 600 gained...
Read More »Market Prices in More Aggressive Fed AND is more Confident of Rate Cuts by the End 2023
Overview: The higher-than-expected US CPI and the strong expectation of a 100 bp hike by the Fed in two weeks is propelling the dollar higher. It jumped to almost JPY139.40 and the euro is off more than cent from yesterday's high (though holding above parity). Even where there has been favorable economic news, like the strong jobs report in Australia, is failed to dent the greenback. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific regions advanced. Hong Kong is a...
Read More »FX Daily, March 30: Monday Blues
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.36% to 1.0553 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Risk appetites remain in check as the spread of the coronavirus is leading to more and longer shutdowns. Asia Pacific equities fell with Australia, the notable exception. Its benchmark rallied a record 7%, encouraged by additional stimulus measures. Led by financials, following new...
Read More »FX Daily, January 17: China and the UK Surprise in Opposite Directions
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.06% to 1.0745 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Helped by new record highs in the US, global stocks are moving higher today. Nearly all the markets in the Asia Pacific region advanced and the seventh consecutive weekly rally is the longest in a couple of years. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is at new record highs and appears set to...
Read More »FX Daily, December 17: Sterling Drops as New Brinkmanship Begins
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.04% to 1.0945 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Efforts by a UK Prime Minister emboldened by a strong electoral victory to ensure that trade negotiations with the EU are not extended as the divorce has encouraged further profit-taking on sterling. After testing the $1.35 area on the exit polls last week, sterling had returned...
Read More »FX Daily, November 18: Sterling Shines in Subdued Start to the New Week
Swiss Franc The Euro has unchanged by 0.00% to 1.0935 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 18(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Equities in Europe and the US look to extend their six-week rally, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gets back on the winning way after stumbling last week. Despite the escalation of the conflict in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng rose 1.35% to lead the region and recoup a chunk of last...
Read More »FX Daily, October 25: Limping into the Weekend both Fighting and Talking
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.02% to 1.1014 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Amazon and Intel earnings offered conflicting impulses for Asia Pacific equities, but Japanese, Chinese, Australian, and South Korean shares advanced. This will allow the regional MSCI benchmark to solidify its third consecutive weekly gain. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is little...
Read More »FX Daily, October 14: Optimism Took the Weekend Off
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.16% to 1.0979 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Japanese and Canadian markets are on holiday today. While the US bond market is closed, equities maintain their regular hours today. Asia Pacific equities rallied, led by 1% of more gains in China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Thailand. The buying did not continue in Europe, and after a...
Read More »EM Preview for the Week Ahead
EM benefited greatly from the improvement in US-China trade relations and quite possibly Brexit. The dollar is likely to remain under some pressure near-term as a result. Yet we must caution investors against getting too optimistic. The details of the partial trade deal still need to be worked out, while existing tariffs will still remain in place if the deal is signed next month as most expect. Brexit negotiations have accelerated but we note that any deal must...
Read More »FX Daily, September 26: Greenback Remains Firm
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.15% to 1.0866 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 26(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: A compelling narrative for yesterday’s disparate price action is lacking. A flight to safety, which is a leading interpretation, does not explain the weakness in the yen, gold, or US Treasuries. Month- and quarter-end portfolio and hedge adjustments may be at work, but the risk is...
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