Tag Archives: RBA

Overview: The dollar’s recent losses have left it stretched on a near-term basis after today’s ECB meeting, the focus will shift to the Federal Reserve, next week’s meeting, and the employment report. The greenback is trading with a firmer bias against the G10 currencies, while the emerging market currencies are more mixed. There, several Asian currencies are leading the advance today (South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines). Central European currencies are posted...

Overview: The big bond and stock market seen yesterday has continued today. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s reversion to a quarter-point hike stokes hope that the aggressive tightening cycle more broadly is set to slow. The UN’s Conference on Trade and Development became the latest to warn that the synchronized tightening risks a global recession and a prolonged period of stagnation. The large equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rose 2.0%-3.75%.  Europe’s Stoxx...

The market has much to digest. The Bank of England's new purchases of Gilts coincided with a reassessment of the trajectory of Fed policy. After the hawkish FOMC decision and forecasts, the market briefly thought the terminal rate could be 5.25-5.50% in the middle of next year. However, by the end of last week, it had returned to around 4.5% at the end of Q1 23. Italy has a right-wing government, and what it means for the country's debt and relationship with the EU...

Overview: After retreating most of last week, the US dollar has extended yesterday’s gains today. The Canadian dollar is the most resilient, while the New Zealand dollar is leading the decline with a nearly 0.75% drop ahead of the central bank decision first thing tomorrow. The RBNZ is expected to deliver its fourth consecutive 50 bp hike. Most emerging market currencies are lower as well, led by central Europe. Equities in Asia Pacific and Europe are mostly higher...

Overview: Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has added to the risk-off mood of the capital markets today. Most of the large Asia Pacific equities sold off, with Australia and India being notable exceptions. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off for the second consecutive session, and by the most (~0.60%) since mid-July. US futures are also weaker. Benchmark 10-year rates are lower. The 10-year Treasury is off a couple of basis points to below 2.55%, while European yields are...

Overview: The US dollar begins the new month better offered. It is softer against all the major currencies. Short yen positions continue to get unwound, which is leading the move, followed  by the Antipodeans, where the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike rates tomorrow. Most emerging market currencies are firmer too, except for a few Asian currencies, the Russian rouble, and, of course, the Turkish lira. Asian and European equities are higher. Japan and...

Next week, there are three big events:  the US jobs report, the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, and the Bank of England's meeting. That said, the final PMI readings may be more helpful this time than we often see because of how quickly it appears activity has stalled. After we review the likely highlights and share a few other observations, we will look at the technical condition of the major dollar pairs.  On August 3 in Sydney, the Reserve Bank of Australia...

Overview: The biggest rally in the S&P 500 in three weeks helped lift global equities today. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose for the third consecutive session, the longest streak this month. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up for a fourth day and is at its best level since mid-June. US futures are firmer. The rally in equities has not spurred a rise in rates. The US 10-year yield is back below 3%, and European benchmark yields are mostly 5-8 bp lower, though signs that a...

Overview: The dollar’s downside correction continues today, helped by hawkish signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia and unnamed sources who have played up the chances of a 50 bp hike by the European Central Bank on Thursday. Asia Pacific equities were mixed, and mostly lower after the losses in the US yesterday. The prospect of a more aggressive ECB is weighing on European equities. The Stoxx 600 is slightly lower after rallying 2.7% in the past two sessions....

Overview: The dollar is soaring today, and the euro is trading at new 22-year lows having traded below $1.03. Even a 50 bp hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia has failed to prevent a sharp drop in the Australian dollar. The session seemed to have begun off well enough. Japan, South Korean, Taiwan, Australian, and Indian shares advanced in the Asia Pacific region. Europe’s Stoxx 600 began off firmly, but quickly unwound yesterday’s 0.55% gain. US futures are...